Bitcoin Profit Supply Drops to 59%, Closing In on Bear Market Levels

The 50% profit level has acted as a rough threshold for market bottoms, and at 59%, the current reading is getting closer to that floor.

The share of Bitcoin (BTC) supply in profit has dropped to around 59%, bringing it close to levels seen during the last bear market.

This comes from data shared by analyst Darkfost, who also pointed out that the number of addresses depositing BTC had dropped to a 10-year low.

Profit Supply Nears Bear-Market Territory

In a post published on X on April 9, Darkfost revealed that the share of Bitcoin supply still in profit was sitting way below the historical average of about 75%.

“Nearly 1 BTC out of 2 is held at a loss,” they wrote.

The analyst made clear the significance of that number, saying that for Bitcoin to maintain upward price pressure, it needed a healthy share of its investors to be sitting on gains. When so many of them are in the red, it shrinks the pool of willing sellers, making it harder to generate organic demand and causing prices to stall.

According to the data, in the past, the 50% mark has acted as a rough threshold for market bottoms, and while the current figure is still above that level, the direction of travel is clear.

Darkfost’s conclusion was direct: the current environment “appears more suited for accumulation than for selling,” with the strategy being to pick up BTC when losses reach extreme levels and only reducing exposure when the profit supply gets near 100%.

Weakening Activity on Exchanges

In a separate update, Darkfost also noted that the number of Bitcoin addresses depositing funds to exchanges had dipped to about 31,000 per day on a 30-day moving average, which is the lowest it has been since 2017.

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The on-chain technician attributed the fall to a mix of investor disengagement during a prolonged correction, price levels that give no incentive to sell, and a structural shift toward self-custody and decentralized platforms that has been building since the collapse of FTX.

“Although such an environment is typically unfavorable in the short term, these phases often coincide with periods where selling pressure progressively exhausts itself,” the analyst explained.

Analytics provider Glassnode also made a similar assessment, describing the current market environment as “subdued and low-conviction.” The platform also noted that spot activity was rather soft and that BTC was trading “inside the bear market value zone.”

At the time of writing, the flagship cryptocurrency was changing hands near $71,000 after it retreated from a 3-week high close to $73,000, which had been driven by the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, as well as reports emerging that Iran would require ships accessing the Strait of Hormuz to pay for their passage using crypto.