Despite Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent 13% pullback from its all-time high (ATH) of $126,199 recorded on October 6, analysts believe the current bull cycle may still have room to run. According to CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA, there is a 55% probability that the Bitcoin bull market top has not yet formed, signaling that more upside could be ahead once the market completes its ongoing correction phase.
Bitcoin Top May Not Be In Yet
In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, PelinayPA explained that Bitcoin’s recent decline — from $126,000 to around $109,000 — is part of a broader consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The analyst pointed to on-chain data showing a notable rise in 0–1 day BTC inflows to exchanges, a metric that often reflects short-term traders taking profits after major rallies.
Typically, these short-term inflows signal that traders are repositioning their portfolios to prepare for upcoming volatility rather than exiting the market entirely. PelinayPA suggested that this type of market behavior often occurs in the mid to late stages of a bull cycle, when temporary corrections serve as accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.
Long-Term Holders Remain Confident
One of the key insights from the report is that long-term holders remain largely inactive despite the recent drop in price. Bitcoin held for over six months has not seen any significant movement to exchanges, indicating that experienced investors are not selling into weakness.
This long-term holder conviction is a bullish signal, showing that most participants with a long-term perspective continue to trust Bitcoin’s fundamentals and market trajectory. Historically, when long-term holders remain steady while short-term traders take profits, it reflects confidence in the ongoing uptrend.
According to PelinayPA, “The lack of selling activity from holders in the six-month to ten-year range minimizes the possibility of another major sell-off in the near term.” This behavior aligns with the maturing stage of a bull cycle, where dips are seen as buying opportunities rather than signs of a market peak.
Short-Term Traders Locking in Profits
The data also reveals that the current selling pressure is mainly driven by short-term holders who acquired Bitcoin within the past few weeks. These traders tend to sell when prices drop slightly, locking in profits or cutting losses in response to volatility.
As these new market entrants exit their positions, liquidity redistributes to stronger hands — typically long-term investors or institutions. This process, according to PelinayPA, is a natural part of Bitcoin’s market structure, helping reset the market before the next phase of upward movement.
In the short term, Bitcoin could revisit the $102,000 support zone, especially if profit-taking continues among newer holders. However, PelinayPA believes that such dips are temporary and could present attractive entry opportunities for investors anticipating another leg up in the ongoing cycle.
Why the Bull Run May Continue
PelinayPA emphasized that the 55% probability of the bull run continuing stems from the broader on-chain picture — particularly the resilience among long-term holders and the absence of panic selling. This combination often signals that the market has not reached its final euphoric top.
Moreover, the analyst pointed out that Bitcoin remains in a healthy consolidation phase within a longer-term uptrend. As liquidity stabilizes and weaker hands exit the market, conditions may become favorable for a renewed bullish push.
Supporting this view, several other analysts agree that Bitcoin may still be in the “disbelief phase” — a stage where many investors doubt the sustainability of the rally before the next surge higher. This phase often precedes significant upside moves, catching bearish traders off guard.
Possible Dip to $102,000 Before Recovery
While the overall outlook remains positive, short-term volatility should not be ignored. If Bitcoin fails to maintain its current range, a drop toward $102,000 remains possible. This level has acted as a strong support area in recent months, and a successful rebound from here could confirm the continuation of the broader bull trend.
However, if the $102,000 zone fails to hold, Bitcoin may enter a deeper consolidation before resuming its upward movement. Even then, PelinayPA believes the long-term outlook remains bullish, given the strength of on-chain fundamentals.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $108,472, down 2% over the past 24 hours, according to data from CryptoQuant. Despite this decline, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with many analysts expecting Bitcoin to recover once selling pressure eases.
Final Outlook: Bull Run Still Has Fuel Left
While short-term traders may continue to take profits, the underlying data suggests that Bitcoin’s bull cycle has not yet reached its peak. Long-term holders’ continued accumulation and lack of selling activity paint a picture of sustained market confidence.
If Bitcoin can hold above its key support zones — particularly near $102,000 — and maintain long-term holder stability, the probability of another upward leg remains strong. With on-chain momentum still intact, analysts like PelinayPA believe the bull market’s final phase could still be ahead, giving Bitcoin room to climb once the current consolidation ends.
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