Bitcoin (BTC) has always been known for its dramatic price swings, often spiking or crashing with little warning. Yet, despite its volatility, one indicator has consistently served as a reliable guide for long-term accumulation: the 200-week moving average (200 WMA).
This technical metric is widely regarded as the boundary between bear market capitulation and the start of accumulation phases. When BTC approaches the 200 WMA, historical data suggests it has repeatedly presented some of the most favorable buy opportunities for investors.
Luke Broyles, a Bitcoin market cycle observer, noted on X that BTC has hit the 200 WMA five times, each representing a potential buy signal. While it isn’t a perfect entry every time, the track record indicates that investors who watch this level can benefit from historically low-risk buying points.
How the 200 WMA Has Performed in Previous Cycles
Broyles highlighted that BTC trends downward toward the 200 WMA only briefly before resuming upward momentum. For example, in April 2023, BTC traded at $31,000 while the 200 WMA was near $25,000. Despite the proximity, some investors hesitated, expecting a deeper pullback. By the time BTC revisited the line, prices had already moved to $28,000, leaving a narrow window for those targeting the 200 WMA precisely.
One challenge is that the 200 WMA is a moving target. As BTC rises, the line also climbs, meaning the ideal entry point is constantly adjusting. Currently, the 200 WMA sits above $50,000. If the uptrend continues, it could rise to $70,000 or even $100,000 before BTC revisits it, emphasizing that accumulation is more important than trying to time the perfect dip.
BTC on Higher Timeframes: The Bigger Picture
Analysts focusing on higher timeframes are optimistic about BTC’s macro trajectory. An analyst known as Scient pointed out that the blue zone, representing a must-hold range above $108,000, has acted as strong support for nearly three months. This consolidation phase may pave the way for BTC to flip this level into a reliable support zone, setting up a major expansion phase.
In addition, liquidity below the range lows (RLs) has been swept, meaning that sell pressure in these zones has been absorbed. BTC recently made a higher high (HH) on the 3-day chart, and now sits near the RLs—a prime spot for forming a higher low (HL), which would confirm continuation of the bullish trend.
Hidden Divergences and Technical Signals
Scient emphasizes that in tracking BTC, candle bodies matter more than wicks when analyzing divergence. Hidden bullish divergences on higher timeframes, such as the 3-day chart, can indicate an upcoming upward move. Analysts are watching these divergences carefully, as they often precede volatile price action, suggesting that BTC could see significant upward momentum in the near term.
While this week may appear slow in terms of price movement, market participants expect the next major move to occur soon, potentially confirming that BTC remains in a long-term accumulation phase above the 200 WMA.
Why Investors Should Watch the 200 WMA
The 200 WMA offers more than just a technical reference; it represents a psychological anchor for investors and institutions alike. Each cycle has demonstrated that BTC rarely stays below this line for long, and historical data shows it tends to mark low-risk buying zones.
Even though the moving average is not a “magic bullet,” it serves as a consistent guide for long-term accumulation, helping investors avoid chasing highs or entering during euphoric peaks. By focusing on this key level and monitoring higher timeframes for bullish confirmation, traders can align with BTC’s macro trends while minimizing downside risk.
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