The persistent discount suggests US spot buyers have remained less aggressive than overseas traders even as US Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive in July.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended a 10-day streak of net outflows on Thursday, attracting $221.7 million in fresh capital as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could ease its monetary stance. The renewed institutional demand helped Bitcoin rebound above $61,000 after falling below $58,000 earlier in the week, offering investors a rare positive signal following one of the sector’s weakest months on record.
According to SoSoValue, Thursday’s inflows were the largest daily total for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in nearly two months, reversing a period that saw investors withdraw approximately $2.73 billion from the funds over the previous 10 trading sessions. The recovery follows a difficult June, during which U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $4.5 billion in net outflows, making it the industry’s worst month since the products launched in January 2024.
Fidelity Leads Institutional Buying
Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) accounted for the majority of Thursday’s inflows, attracting $165.96 million. The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) followed with $91.84 million, while VanEck’s HODL added $4.35 million.
The only major fund to post losses was BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which recorded $40.43 million in net outflows. The world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF has now experienced several consecutive sessions of investor withdrawals dating back to mid-June, although it remains the dominant fund by assets under management.
While one day of positive flows does little to offset recent selling, it marked the first time since early May that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted more than $200 million in new investments, suggesting institutional sentiment may be stabilizing.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows (Source: SosoValue)
Bitcoin Recovers Above $61,000
The improvement in ETF demand coincided with a recovery in Bitcoin’s market price.
Bitcoin had fallen to its lowest level in roughly 21 months earlier this week amid broad macroeconomic uncertainty and continued ETF outflows. However, following Thursday’s economic data, the cryptocurrency climbed back above $61,000, trading around $61,800 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.
The rebound also lifted broader digital asset markets after weeks of pressure driven by concerns that elevated U.S. interest rates would continue weighing on speculative investments.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance on July 03, 2026 (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Weak Jobs Report Shifts Rate Expectations
The primary catalyst behind Thursday’s recovery was a softer-than-expected U.S. labor market report.
The June employment report showed the U.S. economy added just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, well below economists’ consensus estimate of around 110,000. The weaker hiring figures strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve could adopt a more accommodative policy path if economic growth continues to slow.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh also indicated that inflation risks have eased, helping reinforce expectations that policymakers may not need to tighten monetary policy further.
The shift pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, creating a more supportive environment for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. Historically, cryptocurrencies have benefited when expectations for higher interest rates begin to fade.
Analysts Link ETF Demand to Improving Macro Sentiment
Analysts largely attributed Thursday’s ETF inflows to improving macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific developments.
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, said easing inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve’s softer tone helped improve overall market sentiment, encouraging investors to return to digital assets. He added that the same trend is beginning to benefit spot Ethereum ETFs, which attracted $14.9 million in inflows on Wednesday and another $29.1 million on Thursday, according to SoSoValue.
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, likewise argued that previous ETF outflows reflected market pricing in the possibility of additional interest-rate hikes. As expectations for tighter monetary policy have weakened following the latest jobs report, investors have become more willing to allocate capital back into Bitcoin.
U.S. Spot ETH ETF Flows (Source: SosoValue)
Recovery Remains Fragile
Despite Thursday’s encouraging figures, market observers caution that a single day of inflows is not enough to confirm a sustained recovery.
The previous 10-day outflow streak erased more than $2.7 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, while cumulative net flows for 2026 remain deeply negative. Thursday’s $221.7 million inflow therefore represents only a small fraction of the capital that left the market during June.
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have been supported by consistent institutional buying through ETFs rather than isolated daily inflows. Investors will be watching closely to see whether Thursday’s rebound develops into a broader trend over the coming weeks.
Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz Technologies, believes recent buyers are taking advantage of oversold conditions after investors rotated heavily into defensive assets such as U.S. Treasury bills during the recent selloff. He noted that declining Treasury yields and easing oil prices point to moderating inflation, potentially improving the outlook for risk assets.
Still, he expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound before establishing a clearer direction. That cautious outlook is reflected in prediction markets, where traders continue assigning a significantly higher probability that Bitcoin’s next major move will be toward $55,000 rather than $84,000.
For now, the return of more than $221 million in ETF inflows provides a welcome boost after weeks of persistent selling. Whether it marks the beginning of renewed institutional accumulation or merely a short-term rebound will depend largely on upcoming U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and whether ETF demand remains positive in the weeks ahead.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged their first five-day inflow streak of 2026, bringing in roughly $767.32 million this week.
The funds recorded $180.33 million in net inflows on Friday, extending the run of positive flows that began earlier in the week. The strongest day of the streak came on Tuesday, when spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs attracted $250.92 million, according to data from SoSoValue.
The last time the funds saw a comparable streak was in late November 2025, when spot Bitcoin ETFs logged five consecutive days of net inflows from Nov. 25 to Dec. 2, bringing in a combined $284.61 million.
Overall, the ETFs now hold $91.83 billion in net assets, with cumulative net inflows reaching $56.14 billion and roughly $4.93 billion in total value traded on the day.
Related: BlackRock says ‘exotic’ crypto ETFs not part of its strategy
Ether ETFs see 4-day inflow streak
Meanwhile, US spot Ether (ETH) ETFs recorded $26.69 million in net inflows on Friday, extending a four-day run of positive flows. The streak began on Tuesday, when the funds added $12.59 million, followed by $57.01 million on Wednesday and a stronger $115.85 million on Thursday, the largest inflow during the period.
The four-day stretch has brought roughly $212.14 million into spot Ether ETFs, reversing the outflows seen earlier in March. As of today, cumulative net inflows into US spot Ether ETFs stands at $11.79 billion, while total net assets across the funds reached $12.26 billion, with about $1.30 billion in value traded on the day.
The recent stretch marks the first sustained inflow run for spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs this year after a volatile start to 2026 that saw several days of heavy outflows across the products.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs add $251M as Goldman Sachs tops XRP ETF holders
Bitcoin range-bound as Middle East tensions rise
Rising tensions in the Middle East and volatility in energy markets are weighing on global risk sentiment. According to Bitunix analysts, escalating conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices have increased macro uncertainty and reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, prompting investors to focus on short-term liquidity rather than long-term risk exposure.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin remains range-bound. Bitunix said derivatives liquidation heatmaps show a key short-liquidity cluster near $71,300, which is acting as near-term resistance, with a larger concentration between $72,000 and $73,500.
On the downside, liquidity support sits around $69,000, with deeper long liquidation levels near $68,800, suggesting BTC may continue consolidating unless macro catalysts trigger a breakout.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘narrative vacuum,’ Ethereum now inevitable: Trade Secrets
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Investors just pulled nearly $3.8 billion from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin
Last week alone saw $316 million vanish, according to SoSoValue.
Leading the outflows trend is BlackRock’s IBIT. The fund has lost $2.13 billion over five straight weeks of outflows.
This shows institutions are still steering clear of the leading cryptocurrency, extending the aversion that kicked in after the early October crash, which exposed its vulnerability to shenanigans on offshore exchanges such as Binance.
While the latest outflows trend matches the one from February last year in length, it’s not as bad, with just $3.8 billion yanked versus $5 billion back then. That prior streak paved the way for a market swoon over the following weeks, with bitcoin falling as low as $75,000 in early April.
Right now, bitcoin is already trading well below that level, changing hands just under $65,000 as of writing.
Analysts have attributed the ongoing risk aversion to lingering U.S.-Iran tensions, President Donald Trump’s fresh global tariff announcement, and technical price-chart factors.”
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The US Bitcoin Spot ETFs continued to experience capital flight last week, recording significant net outflows across major issuers. The sustained withdrawals reflect cautious institutional sentiment amid Bitcoin’s recent price struggles, as the premier cryptocurrency is presently down by 30% on its monthly chart.
Grayscale’s BTC Shines With $110M Amid Market Struggles
According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded total net outflows of $359.91 million in February’s second week, driven primarily by mid-week capital withdrawals. The week began on a bullish note, with investors making a combined net deposit of $311.56 million between Monday and Tuesday. However, the optimism proved short-lived as the ETF market registered $686.87 million in net withdrawals between Wednesday and Thursday. Friday closed the week with a modest $15.20 million inflow, suggesting slight stabilization in investor sentiment.
In analyzing individual fund performance, there was mixed performance across the market. The largest outflows came from market leader BlackRock’s IBIT, which saw $234.65 million in net withdrawals, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC, recording $124.73 million in outflows. Grayscale GBTC also experienced notable aggregate redemptions totaling $77.03 million, though its secondary product, Grayscale BTC, attracted $110.08 million in net inflows, partially offsetting losses.
Ark Invest/21Shares’ CBOE and Bitwise’s BITB posted net outflows of $19.44 million and $29.81 million, respectively, while VanEck’s HODL each recorded modest inflows of $4.03 million. Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton’s EZBC attracted $2.35 million, while WisdomTree’s BTCW recorded a stronger inflow of $14.06 million. Similarly, Invesco’s BTCO lost $6.84 million, and Valkyrie BRRR saw small inflows of $2.08 million, while Hashdex’s DEFI registered no notable movement during the period.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Outlook
The recent weekly losses contribute to a broader trend of declining ETF flows in 2026. So far, February has recorded total net outflows of $677.86 million, with aggregate 2026 withdrawals now at $2.28 billion, reflecting persistent institutional caution. The sustained redemptions appear closely tied to Bitcoin’s recent price volatility, which appears to dampen risk appetite among institutional investors.
Nevertheless, the ETF ecosystem remains strong, with total net assets across all Bitcoin spot ETFs currently at approximately $87 billion. Additionally, cumulative net inflows since the launch in January 2024 remain robust at $54.33 billion, suggesting that long-term institutional adoption remains intact even amid short-term capital rotation.
At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade at $69,479, reflecting a minor 0.99% gain in the last day.
Featured image from Fox Business, chart from Tradingview
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BTC and ETH fell again on Friday amid global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The cryptocurrency market fell again on Friday, extending a four-day losing streak as investors grappled with rising geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $106,400, down 2% on the day, while Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around $3,830, down 3.2% in the same timeframe.
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn and former MD at Barclays, said he believes the current bull run in Bitcoin has ended.
“I firmly believe that we have finished the five-wave move higher, and we will now commence a bear market that will last into late 2026 at a minimum,” Glover said. “That’s not to say that we can’t retest $124K, or even slightly higher, but my view is that prices in the coming months will be lower than they are today.”
He added that his expectation is that the bear market will see Bitcoin trading as low as $70,000 to $80,000, and potentially lower. “The bear market target will become clearer as we watch the price action unfold in the coming months,” Glover said.
Total Crypto Market Cap Drops
Other Top 10 coins also plunged: BNB slipped 7% to $1,074, Solana (SOL) fell 3% to $183, and XRP declined 2.8% to $2.29.
Among smaller tokens, the day’s biggest losers included AAVE, down nearly 13% to $203; ASTER, down 12% to $1.13; and Flare (FLR), down 8.5% to $0.06.
The top gainer of the day was Ethena (ENA), which surged 9% to $0.43, according to CoinGecko.
The total crypto market capitalization dropped 1.5% to $3.70 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance at 57.4% and Ethereum’s share at 12.4%.
Liquidations and Market Flows
Around $972 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass data. Longs made up about $682 million, while shorts accounted for $286 million.
Bitcoin led the liquidations with nearly $345 million, followed by Ethereum at around $231 million. Altcoins collectively contributed around $85 million.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $536 million in outflows on Thursday, marking a second straight day of withdrawals that now total around $637 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs also had outflows, totaling nearly $57 million, according to SoSoValue.
Geopolitical and Macro Uncertainty
The persistent market weakness highlights a cautious environment as economic and global tensions hit an already shaky crypto market, prompting traders to rethink risks in digital assets.
Today, President Donald Trump is meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to talk about giving Kyiv tools to hit deeper into Russia, including a possible trade of Ukrainian drones for long-range missiles.
Trump also said he hopes to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war during an upcoming meeting in Hungary, while coordinating with Zelenskyy, CNN reported.
Domestically, the government shutdown is still ongoing, with Senate Republicans and Democrats at an impasse over funding and health care, and no deal in sight.
The only potential relief comes from the Federal Reserve, which meets later this month. Most investors are expecting a rate cut, with CME Group data showing a 96% chance of a 25 basis point reduction.
“The way markets are reacting now is a mix of panic selling, stops triggering, and selective inbound bids as buyers try to pick bottoms,” said David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets. “We’re probably not seeing a full systemic ‘crash’, but we are entering an environment where a break below major support levels (e.g. for Bitcoin around $100K) could lead to another leg down.”
