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A version of this story appeared in The Guidance newsletter on March 16. Sign up here.

The crypto industry has, once again, raised an enormous war chest in its attempt to influence US elections. As of this writing, it’s biggest test comes tomorrow, in Illinois.

As Eric Johansson noted a couple of days ago, crypto is spending big to defeat Juliana Stratton, the lieutenant governor of Illinois and a candidate in the state’s Democratic Senate primary. But she’s got some powerful allies on her side.

On Tuesday, Illinois Democrats will decide between Stratton and Raja Krishnamoorthi, a Congressman from the state’s Eighth district who “strongly supports crypto,” according to advocacy organisation Stand With Crypto. A third candidate, Congresswoman Robin Kelly, lags in the polls.

The winner of the race is all but guaranteed to defeat whichever Republican he or she faces in the November general election.

In a 36-second video earlier this month, Stratton assailed a “MAGA-backed crypto PAC” for spending $7 million to fund attack ads targeting her.

The amount of money spent attacking Stratton has since risen to $9.9 million, according to Follow the Crypto. Built by industry critic Molly White, the website tracks crypto’s influence campaign in the US.

It is just a fraction of the $271 million the crypto lobby has already spent to influence the outcome of votes this year.

As public advocacy group Public Citizen noted in August 2024, this kind of spending can bear fruit. Through the first eight months of that year, nearly half of all “corporate money” came from the crypto industry, and, of the 42 primary campaigns in which it donated, crypto-backed super PACs’ favoured candidates won 36 times.

But Stratton has powerful allies. She’s been endorsed by progressive firebrand and crypto bogeyman Elizabeth Warren. More importantly, Stratton has received the support of Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, who just happens to be a billionaire.

A rumoured candidate in the 2028 presidential election, Pritzker donated $5 million to Illinois Future PAC, a super PAC backing Stratton.

All told, a little more than $10 million has been raised to oppose Stratton’s candidacy, according to Follow the Crypto. The candidate has raised a little more than $4 million, and she’s benefitted from another $9 million in outside support.

Krishnamoorthi, meanwhile, has raised at least $30 million, according to Follow the Crypto.

The congressman voted for two major crypto bills last year, the Genius and Clarity Acts. And, in a Stand with Crypto questionnaire, he said he’d bought crypto, believes in self-custody, and opposes “agency-driven de-banking of lawful crypto users.”

“The government must ensure America remains the world’s hub for blockchain, including by adopting blockchain tools itself,” he wrote.

At a Friday night rally in Chicago, Warren suggested Krishnamoorthi would be an industry puppet, calling the race “the test case for whether or not they can buy whatever candidate they want for Senate in Illinois and many of the congressional seats,” the Postreported.

Krishnamoorthi rejected the notion he would be beholden to crypto.

“I don’t need to be concerned about any one person or one group of people,” he told the Washington Post. “I don’t need to somehow be concerned I’m going to anger somebody and therefore I shouldn’t do the right thing.”

Aleks Gilbert is DL News’ New York-based DeFi correspondent. Have a tip? You can reach him at aleks@dlnews.com.