The ENA price is up more than 10% in the past 24 hours and trades near $0.28. The move stands out because the token is still down about 54% in three months, stuck in a steady downtrend. Some traders might see the bounce as the start of a trend shift.
But on-chain data and technical signals still lean the other way. The rally has not earned enough confirmation, and a 13% pullback remains a real possibility.
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Whales Reduce Exposure While Volume and Momentum Lag
Large holders are not backing the move. While several posts on X highlighted fresh whale buying, the broader picture tells the opposite story.
Over the past 24 hours, whale holdings dropped from 8.17 billion to 8.07 billion ENA. That’s a reduction of nearly 100 million ENA, worth about $28 million at current prices.
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So the bounce is happening while whales continue to trim positions. That weakens the rally’s base
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Volume patterns agree. On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks whether real buying volume is rising or falling, has formed a clear divergence. From November 18 to November 26, the ENA price made a higher high, but the OBV made a lower high.
This means price is rising faster than real volume, and such divergence often caps rallies. To nullify the divergence, the OBV metric must break past its descending trendline. Until that happens, ENA price rallies will lack strength.
Momentum does not support a breakout either.
RSI (Relative Strength Index), which measures buying strength, shows a hidden bearish divergence. Between November 10 and November 26, the ENA price formed a lower high, but the RSI formed a higher high. Hidden bearish divergence appears inside ongoing downtrends, not before reversals. It suggests the broader trend is trying to continue lower.
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When you combine whale selling, weakening OBV, and a bearish RSI structure, the rally looks more like a relief bounce than a trend change.
ENA Price Levels Show a Possible 13% Drop
The key level in the short term is $0.29. If Ethena (ENA) cannot break and close above that level, the bounce loses momentum again. That exposes $0.24, which sits almost 13% below current prices.
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A clean break under $0.24 opens the way toward $0.21, which is the deeper support if selling pressure grows.
For the rally to gain strength and continue, the ENA price needs two steps:
• first, a strong candle close above $0.29, primarily led by the OBV breakout (if it happens)
• then a follow-through above $0.35.
Only above $0.35 do the RSI-led bearish divergences begin to weaken, and only then can a move toward $0.53 become a reasonable upside target. Until that happens, the ENA price downtrend stays in control.
