World Cup markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show the platforms testing how much of the tournament’s surrounding culture can become tradable.
The 2026 World Cup is already becoming a prediction market event that stretches well beyond the pitch.
Kalshi and Polymarket are listing World Cup markets tied not only to match winners and tournament futures, but also to the spectacle surrounding the tournament, including whether Cristiano Ronaldo cries, whether President Donald Trump attends the final, who performs at the halftime show, what broadcast announcers say during the opening match and whether governments take actions that affect the tournament before it begins.
Most of Polymarket’s off-field World Cup markets are only available on the company’s global platform, with its U.S. app, which now has a dedicated World Cup hub, more focused on contracts tied to gameplay. Polymarket is also promoting its own World Cup-adjacent “Worst Cup” match, a parody soccer event that has markets on both its global site and U.S. app.
The off-field markets are small compared with the trading expected around match outcomes and futures. But they show how prediction market platforms are treating the World Cup as something bigger than the games themselves. It is an increasingly tradeable global media event, a cultural and political flashpoint and an internet obsession.
Kalshi turns World Cup spectacle into event contracts
Kalshi already has an extensive slate of traditional World Cup markets, including contracts on the tournament winner, group winners, Golden Boot, individual matches and whether teams will advance through different stages. The exchange is also promoting the tournament with a free contest offering a $1 million prize pool split among eligible users who correctly pick the World Cup winner, along with a separate drawing for two tickets to the final.
But some of Kalshi’s most interesting World Cup markets are not about what happens during play. Here are a few of Kalshi’s off-field World Cup markets currently available:
- “Who will perform at the FIFA World Cup final halftime show?”
The market tracks the performers for the World Cup final’s new halftime show format, giving traders a way to price the tournament’s entertainment rollout before FIFA announces the lineup. Coldplay and Justin Bieber currently lead the field. - “Will Trump attend the World Cup Final?”
The contract asks whether Donald Trump, the president of one of the World Cup’s three host countries, will attend the final, a question with added relevance after he attended Game 3 of the NBA Finals. - “Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup this year?”
The market reflects political tension surrounding the North America-hosted tournament, including earlier calls in Europe to discuss a possible boycott over Trump. - “Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World Cup?”
The contract ties the tournament to immigration policy, asking whether U.S. entry restrictions are lifted for nationals of Haiti, Iran, Côte d’Ivoire or Senegal before the World Cup. - “What will the announcers say during Mexico vs. South Africa FIFA World Cup Match?”
The market turns the opening match broadcast into a tradable event, with contracts tied to whether announcers say certain words or phrases during the Fox Sports broadcast.
Kalshi has already had at least one World Cup entertainment market resolve. Its market on who would sing the next World Cup song settled on Jelly Roll after “Lighter,” a song by Jelly Roll and Carín León, was released as part of the official World Cup music rollout.
Polymarket’s global platform lists off-field World Cup markets
Polymarket’s global platform, which does not allow U.S. users, also has a full slate of standard World Cup markets, including contracts tied to the tournament winner, group winners, individual matches and how far teams will advance. But the site also includes several markets that go beyond the matches themselves, including:
- “Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?”
The market asks whether Cristiano Ronaldo will visibly cry during the 2026 World Cup. Ronaldo has had several emotional moments during major international tournaments, giving traders a familiar storyline to price. - “President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?”
Like Kalshi, Polymarket Global has a market on whether Trump will attend the World Cup final. But it also has a separate contract on whether he will attend the U.S. opening match against Paraguay on June 12 at SoFi Stadium in California. - “Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?”
The market asks whether Trump will appear in the winning team’s post-final photo, turning a possible trophy stage appearance into its own contract. - “Which team will replace Iran at World Cup?” and “Will Iran Play in the World Cup?”
These markets reflect the uncertainty that followed U.S. travel restrictions, visa issues and geopolitical tensions involving Iran ahead of the tournament. Iran is still fully expected to play, and FIFA has said it is working with Iran’s federation on travel related issues. Polymarket showed Iran at 97% to play, while “No Replacement” was the leading outcome in the replacement market at 99%. - “World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?”
This market reflects concerns about potential disruptions in Mexico’s host cities, including potential security, protests, traffic and crowd control issues around the tournament. Traders currently see relocation as highly unlikely, with Polymarket showing “Yes” at just 1%.
Polymarket U.S. adds World Cup hub as Worst Cup crosses platforms
Polymarket’s U.S. app added a dedicated World Cup hub this week, with prominent placement in its category carousel. But the U.S. hub is more focused on conventional soccer markets, including match outcomes and futures, than the broader set of off-field markets on Polymarket’s global site.
The major exception is Worst Cup, a World Cup adjacent soccer event Polymarket is promoting on both its international platform and U.S. app. The match is scheduled for Tuesday, June 9, at 6:30 p.m. ET between Fakers FC and Infamous FC, with a livestream slated to appear on Polymarket. Promotional images and Polymarket’s market page suggest a playful exhibition between teams of soccer star lookalikes, with the graphics carrying a disclaimer that the event is not affiliated with FIFA.
The market for the exhibition match had topped $77,000 in volume on Polymarket’s global site ahead of the match. The U.S. app showed the same matchup listed as a winner market, with a 50-cent settlement if the match ends in a draw. The market moved sharply in the hours before kickoff. The matchup was trading at around even the morning of the match, before Fakers FC climbed to around 68% by mid-afternoon.
Polymarket U.S. is also offering liquidity incentives around the event. Its documentation lists $10,000 in liquidity rewards for the Worst Cup game, split between $1,000 before the event and $9,000 during live trading.
Platforms prepare for bigger World Cup trading push
The off-field markets are only one piece of a much larger World Cup push across prediction market platforms. Kalshi, Polymarket, OG, Robinhood, DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics Markets and other sports-focused platforms are all treating the tournament as a major trading opportunity.
DeFi Rate has estimated that World Cup prediction market volume could reach $2.5 billion across U.S. platforms, with Kalshi accounting for between $1.47 billion-$1.93 billion of that total. DeFi Rate is also tracking live World Cup group stage odds across platforms and has launched a free World Cup bracket challenge.
