Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at a critical turning point, retesting a price level that has historically determined whether the market heads for another rally or deeper correction. According to new data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around the 0.85 supply quantile, a zone that has often acted as a “make-or-break” level for Bitcoin’s trend direction.
As of now, BTC is trading close to $109,000, with traders closely monitoring whether this level will hold — or if a potential drop toward $98,000 could be next.
Understanding the 0.85 Supply Quantile
Glassnode’s “Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model” divides Bitcoin’s total circulating supply into quantiles, each representing a group of coins based on how profitable they are relative to the current market price. These quantiles help investors identify where the majority of Bitcoin holders stand in terms of unrealized profit or loss.
The 0.85 quantile level means that 85% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently in profit, while 15% is at a loss. Historically, this threshold has served as a vital support or resistance line.
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When Bitcoin holds above the 0.85 level, the market has typically seen strong rebounds and renewed bullish momentum.
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When it fails to maintain this level, the price tends to slide toward the 0.75 quantile, which currently corresponds to around $98,000.
Glassnode: “Holding It Has Sparked Major Rallies”
In its latest analysis, Glassnode highlighted that previous retests of this level have often led to decisive outcomes for Bitcoin’s price movement.
“Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band,” the firm noted.
During Bitcoin’s surge to its all-time high (ATH) earlier this year, the cryptocurrency broke above the 0.95 quantile, meaning 95% of its supply was in profit — a sign of an overheated market. However, the recent correction has pushed BTC back below that threshold, and it now trades around the mid-range quantile zone.
BTC Price Behavior Suggests Uncertainty
The Bitcoin chart shows repeated attempts to hold above the 0.85 level. Each time the price has dipped below, buyers have managed to push it back up — but the overall momentum remains fragile.
So far, BTC has bounced multiple times after touching this key support. However, if it fails to maintain this range, a move toward $98,000 — the next quantile support — could be likely.
Market analysts are watching this region closely, as the next few days could define whether Bitcoin’s current retracement phase is a short-term dip or the start of a deeper correction.
Coinbase Premium Gap Shows Institutional Selling
Further confirming market weakness, data from CryptoQuant suggests that U.S. institutional investors have been more aggressive sellers compared to global traders. Analyst Maartunn noted that the Coinbase Premium Gap, a metric that tracks price differences between Coinbase (USD) and Binance (USDT), has recently turned negative.
When the Coinbase Premium Gap drops below zero, it indicates that the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase is lower than on Binance — a signal that U.S.-based traders, typically institutional entities, are selling more heavily than their international counterparts.
Earlier this week, the metric had remained positive, suggesting mild buying activity from U.S. institutions. But following Bitcoin’s slide below $107,000, the indicator turned red, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
This shift implies that institutional traders are losing confidence, at least in the short term, contributing to downward pressure on BTC prices.
Historical Patterns Point to High-Stakes Moment
Bitcoin’s current situation mirrors several previous phases where retests of major quantile levels decided long-term trends. For example:
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In late 2023, a similar test around the 0.85 quantile preceded a strong rebound that led to months of bullish price action.
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In contrast, early 2022 saw Bitcoin fail to hold this line, triggering a sharp decline that extended the bear market.
These historical precedents highlight the importance of the current retest. If Bitcoin can establish firm support at $109,000, it could act as the base for another significant upward leg. But if it breaks below and fails to recover quickly, $98,000 becomes the next logical level to watch.
What to Expect Next
At the moment, Bitcoin traders are split between optimism and caution. Bulls argue that the market is undergoing a healthy consolidation phase after a strong rally earlier this year. Bears, however, warn that weakening institutional demand and negative on-chain signals could lead to a deeper retracement.
Key indicators to monitor in the coming days include:
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Whether BTC holds above the 0.85 quantile ($109K)
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The direction of the Coinbase Premium Gap
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Overall exchange inflow and outflow trends
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Market sentiment and trading volume shifts
If Bitcoin maintains current support and sees renewed buying pressure, it could retest the $115,000 zone. But if weakness continues, a drop toward $98,000 remains a real possibility.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a decisive juncture once again. The 0.85 supply quantile has historically acted as a key pivot point — one that determines whether the next phase is bullish or bearish. As institutional sentiment softens and technical indicators tighten, traders are bracing for heightened volatility in the days ahead.
Whether BTC bounces or breaks, the market’s reaction to this level will likely set the tone for November’s price action — and possibly, the remainder of 2025.
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