Three bets totaling about $173 were placed before news outlets reported Zacharia’s pick and are expected to pay out roughly $9,600 combined.
Financial services giant Charles Schwab will reportedly enter the prediction markets business by offering customers wagers on the S&P 500.
According to a Friday Wall Street Journal report, Charles Schwab is planning to launch options contracts allowing users to place yes-or-no wagers on the performance of the S&P 500 stock market index. The move, expected to roll out in a matter of months as part of a partnership with Cboe Global Market, could mark the company’s first into prediction markets.
Source: Kalshi
While prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer a variety of event contracts based on the outcome of events, including those tied to politics, sports, weather and companies, the Charles Schwab product will reportedly only include yes-or-no bets on whether the S&P 500 closes above or below a target price. Cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase have also moved closer to prediction offerings with many projecting the market will reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030.
In May, Charles Schwab announced the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether trading for retail clients, marking the company’s move deeper into digital asset services. The company reported a net income of $2.5 billion for the first quarter of 2026.
Related: Republican lawmaker proposes prediction markets insider trading ban, not including White House officials
Both Polymarket and Kalshi already offer similar event contracts related to predictions on the S&P 500.
Prediction markets are still under scrutiny by lawmakers
Although the market continues to grow, many state-level authorities and members of US Congress are calling for oversight of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. In addition to the potential for elected officials to profit from using nonpublic information on the platforms, many state gaming authorities have challenged their ability to offer event contracts related to sports.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under Chair Michael Selig has taken the position that event contracts on prediction markets qualify as “swaps” and the agency has exclusive jurisdiction for regulation and enforcement. Many of the cases connected to Kalshi, Polymarket, the CFTC, and state authorities continue to be litigated.
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Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations.
Both platforms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising fresh capital at the elevated valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation.
Kalshi currently operates in the United States and offers markets allowing users to wager on outcomes tied to sports, politics, the economy and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital.
Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020 to operate as a regulated exchange for event-based markets. The platform has since expanded rapidly and recently surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate, with some estimates placing the figure closer to $1.5 billion.
Related: Kalshi, Polymarket face trading halt in Nevada after court rulings
Polymarket plans US launch later this year
Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, remains inaccessible to US users without a virtual private network but plans to introduce a regulated domestic version of its platform later this year. The company was valued at roughly $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion.
Both platforms have drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators. As Cointelegraph reported, US Democratic lawmakers are drafting legislation to regulate prediction markets after suspiciously timed bets on the timing of US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns.
Senator Chris Murphy alleged that individuals close to the White House may have used advance knowledge of the attack to place bets, noting that several Polymarket accounts reportedly made about $1 million by wagering just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.
Related: Kalshi founder provides update on Iran’s Khamenei market carveout
Polymarket faces insider trading suspicions
Polymarket has faced multiple insider trading allegations after several traders placed unusually well-timed bets on major events. A small group of crypto wallets recently made more than $1.2 million betting on a market tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom shortly before blockchain investigator ZachXBT published claims about insider trading linked to the project.
In a separate incident last month, another Polymarket account reportedly earned about $400,000 after placing a large wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the news became public, further raising questions about whether some traders had advance information.
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