The Super Bowl favorite Rams and several other contenders are expected to battle for double digit wins, while others could have their work cut out to finish the season above .500.
The 2026 NFL season looks ultra-competitive on paper. Prediction markets help make sense of the hierarchy, offering win totals for all 32 teams.
A team’s price provides a current snapshot of expectations for this season. For example, the Los Angeles Rams are trading at 69¢ to win at least 12 games at Kalshi. That win benchmark compares favorably to last year’s 12-win performance during the 2025 regular season.
Which teams look poised to leap forward in 2026? Which squads could be on the decline? Below, we break down the win totals for all 32 teams.
NFL win totals prediction market odds for 2026
The table below includes NFL win totals odds from Kalshi for every NFL team. We’re using the win total threshold currently priced closest to 50% as the baseline, giving us one consistent benchmark per team. The +/- column compares the win threshold with the team’s 2025 record.
| Team | 2026 Kalshi baseline | 2025 record | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 Wins (Yes, 58%) | 3-14 | +1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 Wins (Yes, 52%) | 8-9 | -1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11 Wins (Yes, 57%) | 8-9 | +3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 Wins (Yes, 55%) | 12-5 | -1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 Wins (Yes, 45%) | 8-9 | Even |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11 Wins (Yes, 48%) | 6-11 | +5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6 Wins (Yes, 45%) | 5-12 | -1 |
| Chicago Bears | 10 Wins (Yes, 45%) | 11-6 | -1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 Wins (Yes, 57%) | 7-9-1 | +3 |
| Denver Broncos | 10 Wins (Yes, 54%) | 14-3 | -4 |
| Detroit Lions | 11 Wins, (58%) | 9-8 | +2 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10 Wins (54%) | 9-7-1 | +1 |
| Houston Texans | 11 Wins (49%) | 12-5 | -1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 Wins (59%) | 8-8 | Even |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 Wins (49%) | 13-4 | -3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11 Wins (46%) | 6-11 | +5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6 Wins (55%) | 3-14 | +3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11 Wins (45%) | 11-6 | Even |
| Los Angeles Rams | 12 Wins (60%) | 12-5 | Even |
| Miami Dolphins | 4 Wins (53%) | 7-10 | -3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 Wins (57%) | 9-8 | Even |
| New England Patriots | 11 Wins (46%) | 14-3 | -3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 8 Wins (52%) | 6-11 | +2 |
| New York Giants | 8 Wins (47%) | 4-13 | +4 |
| New York Jets | 6 Wins (49%) | 3-14 | +3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11 Wins (49%) | 11-6 | Even |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 Wins (49%) | 10-7 | +1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 Wins (59%) | 12-5 | +2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 Wins (56%) | 14-3 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 Wins (50%) | 8-9 | +1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6 Wins (56%) | 3-14 | +3 |
| Washington Commanders | 7 Wins (49%) | 5-12 | +2 |
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Season win totals can reflect which teams are priced for big improvements and declines. The Tennessee Titans recorded just three wins last season, but Kalshi currently offers 55¢ on the Titans to win six games this season. Many analysts think Tennessee could be one of the NFL’s most improved teams.
The Seahawks went 14-3 a season ago en route to winning the Super Bowl. Kalshi offers Seattle at 56¢ to win just 11 games. That suggests a possible dip in performance this season.
The Chiefs and Bengals have the largest +/- metric at +5. Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow return from injury, respectively, for the Chiefs and Bengals.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Broncos have the lowest +/- metric at -4. Notably, the Seahawks and Patriots share the same -3 metric after competing in Super Bowl XL.
How NFL win totals work at prediction markets
It’s important to understand how NFL win totals work at prediction markets before trading on them.
Teams will have different win thresholds available to trade on. Think of it as a tiered system based on 8+, 9+, and 10+ wins, for example. Each threshold has its own contract price and implied probability.
Rather than being limited to the benchmark closest to 50% referenced above, traders are free to choose between multiple thresholds.
Prices can fluctuate as trading activity and team expectations change. Be sure to monitor key injuries, especially at the quarterback position, throughout the season.
Yes/No contracts on NFL season win totals are priced between 1¢ and 99¢, with those numbers reflecting the implied probability of winning the trade. Winning contracts always settle at $1, and losing contracts settle at $0.
For example, let’s say you buy a Yes contract for 60¢ and it wins. You’ll receive $1 back, which includes a profit of 40¢ per contract. Prediction markets also give you the ability to trade out of a position before it resolves.
It’s important to remember that the threshold closest to 50% is being used here as an editorial baseline for comparison, not as a prediction published by Kalshi.
Let’s use the Dallas Cowboys as an example. Here are win total prices at Kalshi:
| Cowboys Season Win Total | Price (Odds) |
|---|---|
| 10 | 57% (-133) |
| 11 | 43% (+133) |
| 12 | 30% (+233) |
The odds get progressively longer with more wins. If you’re bullish on the Cowboys going 12-5 this season, you have the option to trade on 12 wins at +233 odds, which would more than double your money.
There is only a 30% implied probability of that happening, but you’ll be rewarded for trading at this threshold if Dallas records a dozen wins this season.
The Cowboys are coming off consecutive 7-win seasons, but they would have rewarded traders three straight years prior to that. Here are the team’s records for the past five seasons:
2025: 7–9–1
2024: 7–10–0
2023: 12–5–0
2022: 12–5–0
2021: 12–5–0
In addition to Kalshi, season win totals are also available on other platforms, including Polymarket, Gemini, FanDuel Predicts, and OG.
You may notice that win totals are presented differently by various prediction markets. For example, Polymarket’s US site uses 9.5+ wins instead of the 10 that Kalshi lists.
NFL teams expected to make the biggest jump in 2026
The Chiefs, Bengals, and Giants have the largest positive differences between their 2025 win totals and their current 2026 benchmarks.
Kansas City Chiefs (+5)
Kansas City sputtered to a 6-11 finish last year after QB Patrick Mahomes went down with ACL and MCL tears in December. The Chiefs are expected to revert to form with a projection of 11 wins. At an implied probability of 46%, Kansas City’s odds of reaching 11 wins are +117.
The +5 differential is tied for the highest YoY with Cincinnati. The return of Mahomes is the single biggest factor in Kansas City’s expected resurgence. Future Hall of Fame TE Travis Kelce also returned for his 14th season.
A notable offseason addition was running back Kenneth Walker III, Super Bowl XL MVP, coming over from Seattle.
The Chiefs won nine consecutive AFC West titles before missing the playoffs last year. For all the reasons above, there are heightened expectations for Kansas City given its current pricing.
Cincinnati Bengals (+5)
Cincinnati also struggled last season after quarterback Joe Burrow went down with a turf toe injury in mid-September. The Bengals also finished with a 6-11 record.
With Burrow back, Cincinnati is projected to win 11 games, producing a +5 differential that matches Kansas City, listed at 48% implied probability.
The Bengals have one of the most explosive wide receiver duos in the NFL. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for more than 2,200 receiving yards and 19 TD catches last season. Running back Chase Brown, who keeps defenses honest and opens up the passing game for Burrow, amassed more than 1,000 rushing yards and 11 TDs last season.
New defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is expected to bolster the defense after anchoring the Giants’ D-Line for the last seven seasons.
Cincinnati should also benefit from playing the league’s third-easiest schedule.
New York Giants (+4)
New York finished in the NFC East basement last season at 4-13. Projected to win eight games, the Giants have a +4 differential this season with an implied probability of 47%.
New York welcomed new head coach John Harbaugh, a perennial winner with the Baltimore Ravens for almost two decades. Franchise quarterback Jaxson Dart, WR1 Malik Nabers, and lead running back Cam Skattebo are the biggest contributors on offense. The defense features two young studs in edge rusher Abdul Carter and defensive lineman Darius Alexander.
Under Harbaugh’s leadership, New York has hope for the first time in a long time. That’s consistent with its current pricing at prediction markets, including Kalshi.
NFL teams facing the biggest drop in 2026
The Broncos enter the 2026 NFL season with the largest negative difference at -4. The Seahawks and Patriots follow at -3 after appearing in the Super Bowl.
Denver Broncos (-4)
The Broncos won the AFC West with a 14-3 record. They have a projection of 10 wins this season, with a 54% implied probability of reaching that mark.
Some regression is expected this season after Denver went 9-2 in games decided by seven points or less last year. The Broncos also play in a tough AFC West, with a pair of games against the Chiefs and Chargers on the regular-season schedule.
QB Bo Nix has a new wide receiver to throw to in Jaylen Waddle, who marked the biggest offseason acquisition after coming over from Miami. The defense remains solid, but it skews older. Patrick Surtain is still one of the NFL’s top performers in the secondary.
Denver has the 11th-toughest schedule to contend with, as it tries to record double-digit wins this season.
Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Seattle reached the top of the football world by winning Super Bowl XL. The Seahawks went 14-3 during the regular season. They enter the new season with an implied probability of 56% of winning 11 games.
Will Seattle experience a Super Bowl hangover? The offense still features QB Sam Darnold and all-world WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,739 last season.
There are questions in the backfield, however, after lead RB Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City. Walker’s backup, Zach Charbonnet, enters the season still recovering from a torn ACL suffered during the playoffs last season. He will miss at least the first four games of the season.
Last year, the Eagles entered the season as defending Super Bowl champions and finished 11-6 before bowing out early in the playoffs. Kalshi’s current pricing of Seattle portends a drop in performance.
New England Patriots (-3)
New England also finished 14-3 en route to winning the AFC East last season. The Patriots are projected to win 11 games, with a 46% implied probability of doing so.
The Patriots endured a difficult offseason. Head coach Mike Vrabel was enveloped in a scandal after news of a relationship with The Athletic’s Dianna Russini broke. Both are married to other people. QB Drake Maye publicly said that it won’t be a distraction, but that remains to be seen.
New England also benefited from playing a very soft schedule last season. The Pats face the 6th-toughest schedule this season, including non-conference road matchups against the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Chargers.
What other NFL futures markets are telling us
When you compare and contrast win totals with other NFL futures at prediction markets, there are some clear connections to be made.
The Los Angeles Rams have the highest win total at 12 games. The Rams are also the favorite to win Super Bowl XLI at Kalshi, with an implied probability of 16%. As you’d expect, Los Angeles is also favored to win the NFC, listed at 25%.
The Bills are one of seven AFC teams projected to win 11 games. There’s a correlation with Buffalo’s odds of winning the AFC Championship. The Bills are the favorite in that Kalshi market with an implied probability of 15%.
The Dolphins and Jets are projected to win four and six games, respectively. Those low expectations are mirrored in the AFC Championship market on both teams. Miami and New York both have a 1% implied probability of winning the conference title this season.
Kris Johnson
