Prediction markets are now pricing the next Trump Cabinet exits and new Attorney General after Kalshi and Polymarket traders accurately predicted the Bondi exit.
The Trump administration is suddenly looking like a churn‑heavy second‑term government, with Attorney General Pam Bondi out this week and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem dumped in March. The two high‑profile exits have left prediction markets buzzing with odds on the next Cabinet‑level departure and the next Attorney General nominee.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket traders are looking at who will replace Bondi, and which official will be on the way out of the White House next.
Traders prediction Bondi departure
Bondi’s firing on April 2 came as a surprise to the public but not, apparently, to traders.
Polymarket and Kalshi contracts had already dialed up the probability that Bondi would be removed by April 30, with Kalshi showing a roughly 78% chance of her departure by May. That number climbed to above 90% by June 1 in the days before the announcement. Her approval ratings had cratered in recent polls, and dissatisfaction within the administration about the Justice Department’s prosecution priorities seem to have sealed her fate.
That move follows Noem’s March 29 ouster as DHS Secretary, the first major Cabinet‑level shake‑up of the term, which already reset traders’ expectations about how stable Trump’s inner circle would be.
Taken together, the two exits tell a story the markets are already pricing into multiple contracts: This administration is prone to rapid, high‑profile personnel shifts.
Next Attorney General market odds
Kalshi’s “Who will be Trump’s next Attorney General” market has Lee Zeldin leading the field with 47% chance with over $3.1 million in notional trading volume so far. Todd Blanche checks in with 27% and Jeanine Pirro follows in third with 8%.
Polymarket’s “Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General” market has seen $266K in volume, with Zeldin leading the way at 45%.
A Kalshi market is also available for when Trump will announce the next Attorney General. With just over $98K in trading volume, “Before May 8, 2026” is sitting at a 44% chance, with “Before June 1, 2026” pacing the field at a 72% chance.
The “next to leave” markets
Kalshi and Polymarket both run markets that explicitly price Cabinet churn, and right now, they’re among the most active narrative‑driven political contracts on the platforms.
On Polymarket’s “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027” market, the field includes a long list of figures such as Kash Patel, Howard Lutnick, Kristi Noem, Pete Hegseth, Karoline Leavitt, Lee Zeldin, John Ratcliffe, Susie Wiles, David Sacks, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Stephen Miller. The contract has drawn over $882K in total volume since it launched in November 2025, and the aftermath of the Bondi and Noem exits has pushed traders to re‑price probabilities.
Kalshi adds more granularity with several linked contracts, including “Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year,” which Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt paces with 53% chance in the market seeing more than $3.2 million in volume.
The market also offers “Who will leave Trump’s Cabinet next,” with Lori Chavez-DeRemer leading the field at 34%. Traders have piled over $357K into that market.
Turbulent Cabinet intrigues traders
The Bondi‑Noem turbulence is a clean study in how prediction markets convert political personality risk into tradable events. The family of Bondi‑exit and Attorney General-announcement contracts, plus “who leaves next” and “who’s the next AG” markets, together form a mini‑ecosystem around Cabinet‑churn risk.
For traders, that means the Trump Cabinet personnel moves are no longer just a press‑release backdrop, but structured, multi‑contract stories that can be hedged and speculatively traded.
