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The slowdown in on-chain activity echoes a similar lull last summer that came right before a huge rebound in Bitcoin.

The total fees paid on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) recently fell to approximately $593,000, marking the network’s lowest usage cost since at least August 2025.

This collapse in transaction activity on one of crypto’s busiest highways is reviving memories of a similar demand drought last summer that immediately preceded a 95% rally in Bitcoin (BTC).

A Silent Market Flashes a Historic Signal

Blockchain fees are the clearest measure of user demand, representing what people pay to move tokens or use decentralized applications. When fees drop sharply, it signals reduced network congestion and waning speculative interest.

According to data from analyst Amr Taha, on February 23, BSC fees sank to $593,000, which is well below the $1.07 million trough recorded on August 7, 2025. At that time, Bitcoin was trading near $55,000, and, per Taha, the fee drop later helped form a major bottom before the asset embarked on a rally that saw its price shoot up by more than 95%.

The on-chain observer also flagged a steep drop in Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized market cap, which fell to about $386 billion on February 24, well below an earlier low of $440 billion recorded on April 8, 2025.

Historically, similar contractions have coincided with heavy capitulation phases that preceded rebounds, including the move that took BTC from around $78,000 to above $108,000 following the April 2025 low.

Derivatives and the Path to Recovery

While the decline in spot activity signals caution, the derivatives market is undergoing a structural reset that could pave the way for the next move. According to XWIN Research Japan, open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen sharply, reflecting a broad deleveraging phase. Analysts at the institution noted that the recent drop in price was accompanied by falling open interest, indicating that liquidations and derivatives-driven unwinds, rather than aggressive spot selling, drove the decline. This type of reset can stabilize the market, even if it does not immediately signal renewed demand.

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Further complicating the outlook is the options market structure. Coinbase Institutional’s analysis shows a pronounced negative gamma band concentrated between $60,000 and $70,000. When dealers hold negative gamma, their hedging activity can amplify price moves, meaning a break below $60,000 could accelerate selling.

Despite the cautious tone, some on-chain indicators offer a glimmer of stability, with the Binance Fund Flow Ratio remaining low around 0.012, implying limited immediate sell-side pressure. During the recent drop toward the mid-$60,000 region, the ratio did not spike, meaning panic-driven spot inflows were absent.

However, as XWIN Research noted, weak inflows do not equal strong accumulation, and the medium-term trend of demand metrics has not yet turned decisively upward.

For a durable bottom to form, stronger spot volume support will be essential. As it stands, Bitcoin is trading just above $68,000 at the time of writing, down roughly 23% over the past month and more than 46% below its all-time high above $126,000.