Key takeaways:
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Ether price previously fell 60% from a bearish cross that’s again in play.
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ETH must hold above $4,000 to avoid further losses.
Ether’s (ETH) MACD indicator sent a “sell” signal on its weekly chart, an occurrence that has historically preceded steep price drawdowns.
Previous signals led to 46%-60% ETH price drops
Ether’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator flashed a bearish signal in early 2025, a period that saw the ETH spot price drop by over 60% within a few weeks.
A similar pattern is now unfolding in October, increasing the likelihood of a deeper decline in the coming days or weeks.
Related: BitMine appears to buy the dip as ETH is down 20% from peak
The MACD is a popular momentum indicator used in technical analysis that helps traders identify the strength, direction, and duration of a trend in an asset’s price.
The indicator has produced a bearish cross on the weekly chart, as shown in the figure below.
Previous instances show that ETH tends to drop sharply when the MACD line (blue) crosses below the signal line (orange). The altcoin’s losses have been 46% in mid-2024 and 60% in Q1 2025.
“Not liking this Ethereum weekly MACD cross to red after 22 weeks green,” said analyst CRYPTO Damus in a Tuesday post on X, adding that the last three times the bear cross occurred were followed by significant ETH price drops.
Fellow analyst Titan of Crypto cautioned his followers to be “prepared for any scenario” once the signal is confirmed.
Is #Ethereum shifting momentum? 👀
After breaking above the range highs, $ETH seems to be re-entering the weekly range.
Although the week hasn’t closed yet, the MACD is currently crossing bearish.
Confirmation needed, but one must be prepared for any scenario. 🫡 pic.twitter.com/Zi6d68jMdr
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) October 16, 2025
Other ETH price analysts suggest that the altcoin could continue its retracement to retest lower support levels before launching another rally toward $5,000.
Bulls must keep the ETH price above $4,000
Ether’s price is approaching a critical juncture as it retests the $4,000 support level, an area it has held since reclaiming it in early August.
Bulls must keep the ETH price above this level to increase the odds of resuming its uptrend.
Note that the last time Ether dropped below this level in December 2021, it was followed by a 78% drop in ETH price, bottoming around $880 during the 2022 bear market.
“As long as ETH price holds above the $3,899 support level, a direct move to the upside remains possible,” said Elliott Wave analyst Man of Bitcoin in an X post, adding:
“A break below this level would suggest that a larger correction is unfolding.”
Trader Koala said that ETH is currently in a “weekly breakdown and trend loss” after losing the support at $4,200.
“We will likely see downward acceleration sooner than later.”
This is a weekly breakdown and trend loss.
This is not bullish chop (that is cope from the bulls)
We will likely see downward acceleration sooner than later.
Weekly range low deviation?
Maybe.
But I wouldn’t bet on that. pic.twitter.com/4Fq2OsOO7j
— Trader Koala (@trader_koala) October 16, 2025
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether bears are currently in control and are focused on pushing the price below the lower boundary of a descending channel at $3,745 on the daily time frame.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
