Bitcoin’s latest oversold RSI mirrors 2020 and February 2026 setups that preceded 50% and 30% rebounds, putting $70K back in focus.
Key takeaways:
- Ether derivatives metrics flip to a heavily bearish bias as cascading liquidations cut off a relief bounce.
- A critical ZCash bug discovered by AI triggers widespread fears of contagion, driving a contraction in Ethereum TVL.
Ether (ETH) plummeted to a 13-month low of $1,540 on Friday, following the bearish trend across the broader cryptocurrency market. Traders now fear a deeper price correction, given weakness in ETH derivatives metrics and heightened risk after a bug was found in the Zcash blockchain.
ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas
The Ether futures annualized funding rate flipped negative on Friday, indicating increased demand for short positions. Even with ETH trading 67% below its all-time high from August 2025, confidence among bulls has been shattered after $1.28 billion in leveraged longs were liquidated over 5 days.
ETH options premium put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas
Demand for downside price protection surged as the Deribit ETH options put-to-call premium spiked to 3.7 times on Friday. The indicator has consistently shown excess demand for put (sell) options since Monday. Low conviction among holders fuels uncertainty, giving bears an easy path to take control.
ETH price followed Zcash: Why?
The severe decline in Ethereum network Total Value Locked (TVL) to its lowest since February 2024 has also negatively impacted trader sentiment. Smaller deposits in decentralized applications (DApps) tend to reduce ecosystem revenue, ultimately reducing demand for ETH use in smart contracts.
Ethereum network DApps Total Value Locked, USD. Source: DefiLlama
Some of Ethereum’s top DApps experienced severe TVL contractions, including Spark (-50%), Ether.fi (-49%), EigenCloud (-41%), and KernelDAO (-39%). Part of the exodus from smart contracts can be attributed to a critical vulnerability allowing unlimited ZEC minting in the largest ZCash zero-knowledge pool. The bug was found on May 29 using the Opus 4.8 AI model from Anthropic.
Given that the ZCash bug had existed since 2022 without anyone ever detecting it, traders fear that other blockchains and smart contracts could also be at risk. Advances in AI-driven security failure detection have put investors on high alert, especially after cryptocurrency hacks totaled $630 million in April.
KelpDAO’s $293 million hack and Drift Protocol’s $280 million exploit accounted for 82% of the monthly losses across 25 protocols, triggering panic across the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry. The hacks occurred across multiple networks, including Ethereum, Solana, Base, BNB Chain, Sui and PulseChain.
Percent of ETH supply in profit since they last moved. Source: Glassnode
Currently, only 30% of the ETH supply is profitable relative to when those coins were last moved. This setup has occurred only a few times in history, with the most recent instance being the mid-March 2020 COVID crash. Prior to that, this strong buy signal also emerged in mid-December 2019, preceding a 118% rally within 60 days.
Related: FG Nexus offloads additional $17.8M Ether as losses top $100M
With over $500 million in leveraged ETH long positions liquidated in 48 hours, there are no signs of a relief bounce. The largest Ethereum treasury firm, Bitmine (BMNR US), is sitting on an unprecedented $10.5 billion unrealized loss, as the company holds 4.5% of the entire ETH supply.
ETH could slide further below $1,550 as investor confidence deteriorates following multiple hacks across the DeFi industry and the inflationary bug found in the shielded Zcash protocol.
A Casascius coin tied to 25 BTC moved this week, converting a 2011 physical Bitcoin artifact into spendable BTC during a broader market selloff.
Galaxy Research identified the item as an S1-COIN-25 Casascius physical Bitcoin, a large-denomination piece from the era when Bitcoin could still be handed across a table as a loaded coin. The reported alert valued the 25 BTC at about $1.78 million at the time.
The on-chain sequence is more precise than a simple cash-out. The watched address received a 25 BTC output in block 156,413 on Dec. 7, 2011. It later accumulated small dust outputs before spending its funded outputs this week.
The first 2026 spend landed on June 3 at block 952,159. That transaction spent 25.00002187 BTC from the address and returned 24.98998 BTC to the same address after fees and dust handling.
A second transaction on June 4 at block 952,267 moved 24.98996629 BTC to a SegWit address, leaving the watched address with no balance.
The event proves a status change rather than a confirmed sale. Bitcoin, once attached to a physical collectible, became spendable via a normal wallet path. The chain shows movement away from the old address without any evidence of an exchange deposit, custodian route, or sale.
What the Bitcoin blockchain shows
The June 3 transaction matters because it exposed activity from an address that had carried its original 25 BTC output since 2011. The spend returned most of the value to the same address, so a one-line address history can overstate what changed.
The June 4 transaction completed the visible move. The final spend sent 24.98996629 BTC from the watched address to bc1qn5snfwq447vge9ynnz66xqm9kpam9eu34z52dk. The fee was 1,371 sats.
After that, Blockstream’s address view showed no remaining balance. The holder’s reason remains unknown, and the available record ends with a transfer to another Bitcoin address.
That boundary matters for market interpretation. Old coins moving can look like holder behavior during a selloff, while the available data only establishes transfer to a recipient address.
CryptoSlate applied a similar standard to Mt. Gox-linked wallet movements, treating the first transfer as a warning light until later routing showed more. The same discipline applies here, where the next useful signal is onward routing.
For now, the address history supports the following conclusion: a long-dormant, Casascius-attributed 25 BTC address became active, then sent nearly all of its remaining balance away from the original address.
Casascius attribution and on-chain proof do separate jobs. The visible chain proves the key was used. Galaxy-attributed secondary coverage supplies the label that makes it a physical-coin event.
Keeping those layers separate preserves the cultural hook without turning a tracker alert into more certainty than the record can carry.
A move from an old address becomes supply-only if subsequent routing points to a venue where coins can be sold or financed.
Until then, the strongest verifiable signal is a custody transition. A private key once hidden in a physical object has been used, and the BTC now sits outside the original Casascius-attributed address.
Why a Physical Coin Still Matters
Casascius coins occupy a strange place in Bitcoin history because they turned a purely digital bearer asset into a physical object. The original site describes pieces with their own Bitcoin address and a redeemable private key sealed inside.
The Casascius FAQ explains the tamper-evident hologram and the rationale behind making a physical Bitcoin as a proof-of-concept and conversation piece.
That design created a trade-off outside ordinary wallet custody. Leaving the hologram intact preserves the object as a loaded collectible. Peeling it gives the holder control over the BTC, but changes the item from a funded artifact into a spent collectible.
The owner is choosing between numismatic scarcity and direct wallet liquidity. That choice makes this move more distinctive than a dormant wallet transfer.
A standard wallet can sit idle for years and then move without changing its form. A Casascius redemption changes the nature of the thing itself.
The coin can still exist as a physical object, but its main economic value has shifted back to Bitcoin on-chain.
CryptoSlate covered a larger version of that tension in 2025, when a holder unlocked about $10 million from a rare Casascius bar. That case also forced a choice between keeping a scarce, loaded relic and redeeming the BTC.
The current 25 BTC move lands differently because of timing. Bitcoin was already under pressure, and old-wallet activity carries a sharper edge when leverage is unwinding.
CryptoSlate’s Bitcoin price page shows BTC near $63,000 on June 4, down 5.7% over 24 hours, 13.8% over seven days, and 22% over 30 days.
At that snapshot price, 25 BTC is worth about $1.58 million, which is already below the $1.78 million recently reported in the Galaxy-attributed alert.
Routing, Not Folklore
Bitcoin fell from $71,765 to $67,895 on June 2, triggering about $394 million in one-hour liquidations as leveraged long positions unwound.
That selloff makes any movement from old BTC addresses feel more consequential than it would during a calm rally.
The cultural signal and the trading signal are different. The cultural signal is clear: one of Bitcoin’s early physical storage formats appears to have rejoined the ordinary liquidity layer.
The trading signal remains unresolved. The watched BTC has left the original address, while the available data leaves open whether it will be sold, stored, pledged, or moved again.
Casascius redemptions connect the Bitcoin of forums, holograms, and physical experiments with the Bitcoin of ETFs, market-cap dashboards, and institutional liquidity.
A physical coin from 2011 can sit untouched for years, then become on-chain BTC in a market where every old coin movement is scanned for supply pressure.
It is a small event compared with Mt. Gox balances, ETF flows, or miner selling, but it is vivid because the holder had to alter a collectible to make the BTC liquid.
The next signal is simple. If the June 4 recipient address routes funds toward an exchange, custodian, mixer, or known liquidity venue, the signal moves from culture and custody into market supply.
If it stays parked, the event remains a clean example of Bitcoin’s long memory: old keys, old objects, and old storage habits can still wake up when the asset around them has become a global market.
In brief
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The cryptocurrency market is enduring a sharp narrative shift, but the real growth is happening away from the spotlight, according to the co-founder of Solana-native yield protocol Solstice Labs.
Ben Nadareski argued that the industry’s biggest asset is experiencing structural confusion in an interview with CoinDesk on Tuesday.
“Bitcoin
Decentralized finance’s “silent” growth is heavily challenged by ongoing exploits, according to Nadareski, a flaw he blamed on developers frequently building innovative code while completely ignoring the core responsibilities of managing capital.
“They don’t quite realize you’re now also a financial asset manager if you’re working in DeFi,” Nadareski stated. “That doesn’t mean you’re in tech. That means you’re building tech in financing, which adds two aspects of risk to the market.”
OpenZeppelin co-founder and former CTO Manuel Aráoz said “DeFi is not safe anymore” last month noting that AI coding agents have made smart contracts fatally vulnerable.
Drift Protocol and Kelp Dao were hacked by North Korean cybercriminals in April in two exploits that drained nearly $600 million from the two lending crypto pools. In February 2025, Bybit suffered a $1.46 billion attack, described as the biggest hack of all time.
Nadareski said that to bridge this trust gap, DeFi platforms must hold themselves to traditional banking standards, implementing real-time proof of reserves and automated multi-signature time locks rather than relying on unproven code layers.
DeFi principles
The entry of legacy banking giants does not mean crypto natives have lost the space, Nadareski said. Instead, he pointed to market structure where Wall Street uses faster digital rails for its operational back offices, while decentralized platforms preserve direct user access.
“The convergence is already among us. The institutions have been coming for years and now they are here,” he highlighted.
Winning platforms will be those that accommodate large financial entities while maintaining low fees and equal access for everyday retail users. Since its launch, Solstice has scaled past $500 million in total value locked (TVL) from over 40 institutional allocators, including Galaxy Digital and Susquehanna.
Solstice has also unveiled a strategic partnership with big-data analytics platform ApexE3, which is backed by Consensys and Tensorix.
Treating decentralized networks as a financial utility rather than a tech playground is the only path forward, according to Nasareski.
“Expect more out of DeFi than you do TradFi,” he concluded. “The average retail end-user anywhere in the world should expect 10 times more of an output of transparency, trust, and optimization of their capital.”
VICTORIA, Seychelles, May 26, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — MEXC, a pioneer in 0-fee digital asset trading, has released its March–April bimonthly security report, including the strategic deployment of 1,000 BTC to its treasury reserves to strengthen user protection.
MEXC’s security infrastructure intercepted and restricted 26,897 accounts tied to coordinated fraud within 60 days, an 18.9% increase from the previous reporting cycle. Threat intelligence engines mapped 6,903 malicious syndicates (up 33.6%), with the heaviest concentrations emerging from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Indonesia, tracking 3,567 and 1,524 threat clusters, respectively. All identified entities were immediately banned across the platform to secure ecosystem liquidity and protect user capital.
Between March and April, MEXC handled 254 intelligence requests and 50 law enforcement freeze mandates. Through this collaborative infrastructure, leading to freezing 17,084,031 USDT in 47 threat cases, with 23 cases involving direct law enforcement action. All actions followed multi-jurisdictional laws to ensure compliance and fast response. MEXC resolved 819 deposit errors, recovering 863,127 USDT after thorough manual and on-chain checks during the period.
MEXC’s deployment of the additional 1,000 BTC to its institutional reserves, has established a formalized dual-asset architecture for the Guardian Fund to leverage USDT to guarantee immediate operational liquidity, while the Bitcoin tranche functions as a macroeconomic anchor to preserve capital across market cycles. Concurrently, MEXC has initiated a mandate to aggressively scale the fund’s total capitalization from $100 million to $500 million over the next two years. All institutional wallet addresses are fully public, enabling real-time, cryptographically verifiable proof of reserves.
MEXC’s major asset reserve ratios were as follows:
Looking ahead, MEXC will continue to disclose key data through its bimonthly security reports, and through on-chain verifiable reserves, standardized risk control procedures, and cross-platform collaboration to strengthen user asset protection.
About MEXC
MEXC is the world’s fastest-growing cryptocurrency exchange, trusted by more than 40 million users across 170+ markets. Built on a user-first philosophy, MEXC offers industry-leading 0-fee trading and access to over 3,000 digital assets. As the Gateway to Infinite Opportunities, MEXC provides a single platform where users can easily trade cryptocurrencies alongside tokenized assets, including stocks, ETFs, commodities, and precious metals.
MEXC Official Website｜ X ｜ Telegram ｜How to Sign Up on MEXC
Victoria, Seychelles, May 26th, 2026, Chainwire
MEXC, a pioneer in 0-fee digital asset trading, has released its March–April bimonthly security report, including the strategic deployment of 1,000 BTC to its treasury reserves to strengthen user protection. Alongside this massive capital injection, the exchange continues to scale its compliance architecture to neutralize evolving market threats.
Intercepted 26,897 Accounts Linked to Organized Risk Activities
During this 60-day period, MEXC’s security infrastructure intercepted and restricted 26,897 accounts tied to coordinated fraud—an 18.9% increase from the previous reporting cycle. Threat intelligence engines mapped 6,903 malicious syndicates (up 33.6%), with the heaviest concentrations emerging from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Indonesia, tracking 3,567 and 1,524 threat clusters, respectively. All identified entities were subjected to immediate platform-wide bans to secure ecosystem liquidity and protect user capital.
Deploying On-Chain Intelligence to Immobilize Compromised Funds
By syndicating threat-linked wallet data with major industry partners, MEXC actively maps and disrupts illicit capital flows tied to theft and fraud, preemptively restricting assets before secondary transfers can happen. From March to April, the platform processed 254 cross-platform intelligence requests, including 50 law enforcement freeze mandates. Through this collaborative infrastructure, the exchange directly immobilized 17,084,031 USDT across 47 active threat cases—23 of which were executed via direct law enforcement intervention. All intelligence broadcasting and subsequent asset freezes were conducted in strict adherence to multi-jurisdictional laws, ensuring rapid response efficiency while maintaining absolute regulatory compliance.
Restoring Misdirected Capital: 863,127 USDT Recovered Across 819 Incidents
Between March and April, MEXC manually processed 819 erroneous deposit cases, recovering assets equivalent to 863,127 USDT. Each case underwent rigorous manual review, on-chain verification, and cross-chain tracking procedures to guarantee the precise and secure restitution of user capital.
Guardian Fund Adds 1,000 BTC Reserves
MEXC’s deployment of the additional 1,000 BTC to its institutional reserves has established a formalized dual-asset architecture for the Guardian Fund. This framework leverages USDT to guarantee immediate operational liquidity, while the Bitcoin tranche functions as a macroeconomic anchor to preserve capital across market cycles. Concurrently, MEXC has initiated a mandate to aggressively scale the fund’s total capitalization from $100 million to $500 million over the next two years. To maintain absolute transparency, all institutional wallet addresses are fully public, enabling real-time, cryptographically verifiable proof of reserves.
Guardian Fund wallet addresses:
Major Assets Maintain Overcollateralized Reserves, With BTC Reserve Ratio at 293.29%
During this reporting period, MEXC’s major asset reserve ratios were as follows:
- Bitcoin (BTC): reserve ratio of 293.29%, with total wallet assets of 11,895.453 BTC covering user holdings of 4,055.818 BTC
- Ethereum (ETH): reserve ratio of 122.93%, with total wallet assets of 70,167.059 ETH
- USDT: reserve ratio of 116.92%, with total wallet assets of 2.442 billion USDT
- USDC: reserve ratio of 120.03%, with total wallet assets of 95.7287 million USDC
During the same period, the MEXC Futures Insurance Fund continued to operate normally, providing coverage for potential negative balance losses under extreme market conditions and reducing the impact of liability spillover on user assets. The fund balance remains publicly available in real time. Users can check the current balance of each trading pair on the MEXC official Insurance Fund page.
MEXC CEO Vugar Usi said, “Trust must be supported by verifiable capital and transparent mechanisms. The expansion of the Guardian Fund and the addition of BTC reserves mark an important step in MEXC’s continued development of user protection infrastructure. We aim to provide users with a higher level of security assurance and asset transparency as they participate in the market.”
Looking ahead, MEXC will continue to disclose key data through its bimonthly security reports, covering risk interception, law enforcement cooperation, user asset recovery, and proof of reserves. Through on-chain verifiable reserves, standardized risk control procedures, and cross-platform collaboration, MEXC will continue to strengthen user asset protection.
About MEXC
MEXC is the world’s fastest-growing cryptocurrency exchange, trusted by more than 40 million users across 170+ markets. Built on a user-first philosophy, MEXC offers industry-leading 0-fee trading and access to over 3,000 digital assets. As the Gateway to Infinite Opportunities, MEXC provides a single platform where users can easily trade cryptocurrencies alongside tokenized assets, including stocks, ETFs, commodities, and precious metals.
MEXC Official Website｜ X ｜ Telegram ｜How to Sign Up on MEXC
For media inquiries, please contact the MEXC PR team: media@mexc.com
Risk Disclaimer:
This content does not constitute investment advice. Given the highly volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, investors are encouraged to carefully assess market fluctuations, project fundamentals, and potential financial risks before making any trading decisions.
Contact
MEXC PR team
media@mexc.com
Bitcoin (BTC) demand on Coinbase points to early signs of market stabilization as BTC reclaimed the upper bounds of its range highs. The 14-day trend of the Coinbase Premium Index has remained in an uptrend, suggesting steady buyer interest despite traders taking $1.14 billion in profits, which pushed the daily Coinbase premium to a six-week low.
Coinbase demand stabilizes amid negative readings
The Coinbase Premium Index dropped to -0.087 on May 19, its weakest reading since March 31. A negative premium means Bitcoin traded at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance, signaling softer demand from US-based buyers.
BTC profit-taking accelerated as it rallied to $82,000 and holders realized 14,600 BTC ($1.14 billion) in daily profits on May 4. CryptoQuant noted unrealized profit margins climbed to 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025.
Bitcoin net realized profit and loss. Source: CryptoQuant
However, the longer-term trend for Coinbase paints a steadier picture. The 14-day simple moving average (SMA) of the premium index has remained above its February lows. Similar recoveries in the moving average preceded renewed spot demand on Coinbase during March 2025, shortly before Bitcoin pushed toward $110,000 in April-May 2025.
The daily premium readings still sit below zero, though the rising SMA points to easing sell-side pressure. Bitcoin also continues to hold above the $70,000–$75,000 range, a zone that previously attracted strong spot accumulation.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium 14-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant
Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that activity across the Coinbase-linked network stayed elevated during the latest pullback. The Base blockchain revenue climbed to nearly $972,000 on May 19, exceeding late-March levels even as the Coinbase Premium Gap remained negative.
The divergence highlights steady network participation inside the Coinbase ecosystem while spot demand gradually rebuilds.
Daily blockchain total revenue by different protocols. Source: CryptoQuant
Related: This Bitcoin price model targets ‘conservative’ $255K by year-end
BTC price receives support from the key daily trend
The daily chart of BTC still leans bullish after the rejection near $82,000. The price continues to trade above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $76,800, which is acting as key dynamic support.
The current retracement has held within the $76,000–$77,000 fair-value gap, keeping buyers active near recent accumulation levels. A recovery from this zone could reopen the path toward $80,000–$82,000, while the larger supply area near $86,000–$90,000 sits higher.
BTC/USDT, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
$74,800 remains a key level and a daily close below that price would mark the first bearish break in the current higher-low formation and shift focus to the $70,000 psychological support level.
Futures data continues to support demand resilience. Market analyst CryptoOnChain reported that Bitcoin’s 30-day moving-average net taker volume dropped to $58 million on May 18 from $243 million in April. However, the metric remained positive during the recent correction, indicating that BTC futures buyers continued to absorb sell pressure near the current price.
BTC net taker volume. Source: CryptoQuant
Related: Bitcoin sees fresh US sell-off as markets await Nvidia ‘biggest earnings event’
Victoria, Seychelles, May 19th, 2026, Chainwire
MEXC, a pioneer in 0-fee digital asset trading, has officially unveiled the “Pizza Day: Urban Run,” marking the first time a crypto platform has introduced a dedicated parkour-style gaming experience. Redefining the celebration of the legendary 2010 Bitcoin Pizza Day, MEXC flipped the script. Instead of the historic tale of spending 10,000 Bitcoin on pizza, users can now collect “Pizza Vouchers” in-game to compete for a grand prize of up to 1 BTC.
Participants can collect “Pizza Vouchers” by completing daily tasks, such as check-ins, deposits, and trading. These vouchers grant entry to the “Pizza Day Urban Run” game, which features three difficulty tiers—Hard, Medium, and Easy—making the experience accessible to participants of all skill levels. To maximize participant value, MEXC has implemented a guaranteed reward mechanism: every player who completes a course will receive a reward from a prize pool featuring Bitcoin, Xaut token, Futures bonuses, and exclusive Pizza Day merchandise.
Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC, said: “Bitcoin Pizza Day is a powerful reminder of how far the digital asset industry has come since the first historic Bitcoin transaction. As we celebrate this journey through the ‘Pizza Day: Urban Run,’ MEXC remains equally focused on strengthening the protection infrastructure that supports long-term user confidence in an increasingly mature market. This commitment is reflected in our plan to expand the Guardian Fund to $500 million and our recent acquisition of 1,000 BTC, reinforcing our ability to provide users with a more resilient and transparent trading environment.”
This initiative marks the launch of MEXC’s broader “One Pizza, Infinite Opportunities” campaign. As the first featured experience, the “Pizza Day: Urban Run” introduces an innovative new way for the community to engage, but it is only the beginning of a broader series of Pizza Day initiatives MEXC plans to roll out. Looking ahead, MEXC will continue unveiling a diverse range of Pizza Day experiences aimed at lowering the barriers to crypto engagement while creating more accessible and rewarding opportunities for users worldwide to connect with and benefit from the evolving digital economy.
To learn more and experience the “Pizza Day: Urban Run” game, please visit the MEXC Pizza Run.
About MEXC
MEXC is the world’s fastest-growing cryptocurrency exchange, trusted by more than 40 million users across 170+ markets. Built on a user-first philosophy, MEXC offers industry-leading 0-fee trading and access to over 3,000 digital assets. As the Gateway to Infinite Opportunities, MEXC provides a single platform where users can easily trade cryptocurrencies alongside tokenized assets, including stocks, ETFs, commodities, and precious metals.
MEXC Official Website｜ X ｜ Telegram ｜How to Sign Up on MEXC
Risk Disclaimer:
This content does not constitute investment advice. Given the highly volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, investors are encouraged to carefully assess market fluctuations, project fundamentals, and potential financial risks before making any trading decisions.
Contact
MEXC PR team
media@mexc.com
CoinGecko data revealed that Bitcoin outperformed on US holidays during 11 of the past 14 calendar years analyzed historically.
A new study by CoinGecko found that buying Bitcoin on US holidays has historically delivered much stronger short-term returns compared to regular trading days.
The analysis examined Bitcoin’s forward returns across different calendar days between May 1, 2013, and May 8, 2026, focusing on single-day gains after purchase.
BTC’s Strongest Next-Day Rallies
According to the data, US holidays recorded an average next-day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, compared to just 0.19% on non-holidays. CoinGecko found that holidays outperformed regular days in 11 of the 14 calendar years included in the study. Among regular weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays posted the highest average next-day return at 0.38%, while Thursdays were the only day to produce a negative average return of 0.09%.
The report identified New Year’s Day as the strongest-performing holiday for Bitcoin purchases, with an average next-day return of 2.01% across 13 observations and a win rate of 84.6%, meaning Bitcoin rose the following day in 11 out of 13 years. Columbus Day posted the same 84.6% win rate alongside an average return of 1.70%, while Christmas generated a 1.46% average next-day gain with a 53.8% win rate.
CoinGecko said the New Year’s Day pattern may indicate the broader January momentum effect often seen in traditional financial markets, where investors deploy fresh capital at the start of a new year. The study added that Bitcoin may also benefit from a shift away from December tax-loss selling into renewed January positioning. The report noted that Bitcoin’s price on January 1 ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, yet the pattern of next-day gains remained relatively consistent throughout the period.
However, not all holidays produced positive results. Martin Luther King Jr. Day recorded the weakest performance with an average next-day negative return of 0.84%, largely influenced by Bitcoin’s 18.65% drop following January 15, 2018, during the early phase of the crypto bear market. Independence Day also averaged a negative return at 0.26%. Veterans Day showed an average gain of 1.75%, but CoinGecko warned that the figure was distorted by a few unusually large rallies, while the holiday’s win rate remained below 50%.
The study also found little meaningful difference in Bitcoin performance between weekdays and weekends. Weekdays averaged a 0.21% positive next-day return compared to 0.22% on weekends, which CoinGecko described as statistically insignificant due to Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading structure.
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Over a one-year holding period, the day of purchase had almost no impact on long-term returns, as average annual gains across all weekdays remained within a narrow 2.4 percentage point range. CoinGecko added that while holiday purchases also showed slightly stronger one-year returns, the effect was likely indicative of broader market cycles rather than a continued holiday-driven trend.
Multiple Pressures Hit Bitcoin
As for Bitcoin’s latest price action, the asset is currently trading back above $80,000 after briefly slipping below that level earlier this week. Market experts said the decline was driven by several pressures hitting the market at once. On-chain data showed that Bitcoin exchange outflows had dropped sharply before the selloff, leaving more coins on trading platforms and increasing available sell-side supply.
At the same time, derivatives traders were aggressively building short positions while leveraged long exposure remained high. Once prices started falling, a wave of long liquidations accelerated the move downward. Rising inflation concerns following fresh US CPI and PPI data, alongside heavy whale selling, added further pressure to the market.
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