Bitcoin

The corporate treasury function — historically rooted in conservative cash management — is undergoing its greatest transformation in decades. The revolution really began with Michael Saylor at Strategy — which now owns over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — but Strategy is no longer the only player in the bitcoin treasury space. Estimates show that corporate treasuries now hold over one million BTC between them, worth over $120 billion worth of the asset as of October 2025.

The thesis for this strategy is rooted in the same thesis for why we buy and hold Bitcoin as individuals. In an era of monetary debasement, the rational entity will look for an asset that outpaces the disastrous effects of debasement. As the money-printing continues and the markets continue to react (see gold trading at $4000+), it is inevitable that every public company will ultimately embrace a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

The case for a corporate Bitcoin treasury

The traditional corporate playbook risks not only underperformance, but a breach of fiduciary duty as cash reserves bleed away on the altar of money-printing. Bitcoin, however, offers a finite-supply, counterparty-free asset with a decade-plus track record of compounding value in real terms.

The beauty of the treasury strategy is not just the holding of the Bitcoin itself; but the ability it gives companies to leverage capital markets. Unlike spot ETFs, companies can issue equity at premiums to Net Asset Value (NAV), raise convertible debt with low or even zero coupons, and strategically time both market access and Bitcoin purchases. In practical terms, this means companies along with owning Bitcoin can use market structure to grow Bitcoin holdings per share over time.

The network effect is now self-reinforcing. As each successful Bitcoin treasury company demonstrates viability, capital market scepticism declines, and the required financial infrastructure (custody, reporting, convertible debt) matures.

Most compelling is the mNAV value-creation paradox: trading at a premium allows companies to issue shares, buy more Bitcoin, and increase BTC per share (BPS) for existing shareholders. For example, Strategy delivered a 74.3% BTC Yield in 2024, so long-term holders saw their underlying Bitcoin stake increase by that amount purely through corporate actions — not market appreciation alone. This is a structural financial innovation for treasury management.

But why would a rational investor pay such premiums?

Public companies raise debt at below Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation rate, magnifying BTC-per-share accretion. From 2020 – 2025 the compounding annual growth rate of Bitcoin has been 64%. Future projections suggest an environment where BTC continues to compound on average between 25-35%, so if funding costs are 8%, the spread is retained by shareholders.

If BTC-per-share is growing faster than dilution, shareholders benefit. The resonant flywheel is: mNAV premium → capital raise → more BTC → higher Bitcoin Per Share → sustained premium → next raise.

Seen through a different lens, many jurisdictions and markets have varying rules about access to Bitcoin for both corporate and retail investors. In the UK alone, as of October 2025 an enormous amount of capital (£1.4 trillion) is trapped in personal pensions and tax efficient savings vehicles (ISAs). For this capital, exposure to Bitcoin through Treasury companies is often the easiest way to generate high alpha returns on a portfolio.

The highs and the lows of mNAV

Since the highs of summer 2025, we have seen an enormous slump in the mNAVs of all BTC treasury companies due to a mixture of stagnant price action and poor sentiment in the community, some of the early adopters have declined 90% in a matter of weeks from their highs – challenging investor sentiment and tested the conviction of companies.

As a share premium to NAV, mNAV is fundamentally built on a foundation of sentiment and fundamentals.

Corporate Bitcoin treasury success hinges on building investor trust through transparent reporting and consistent conviction in Bitcoin, paired with fundamentals like maximizing BTC Yield via accretive capital raises, optimising leverage at market peaks, maintaining mNAV above 1.2x, and defending it with share buybacks and debt reduction. In times of a bear cycle, the conviction of every company will be tested — those who stay convicted and see the longer-term view will be rewarded. The key solution to maintaining the playbook during a bear cycle is to have a profitable operating business: this will allow constant cash flows to initiate accretive share buybacks if mNAV falls below one. It also enables the ability to purchase Bitcoin at a discount without diluting shareholders.

Many companies have entered the space with very small, minimally profitable operating businesses — for example, Metaplanet was a failing small hotel chain. These companies look to the flywheel to revitalize the business. It works great when times are good, as seen in June of this year, where seemingly any company could get a premium. But when Bitcoin falls in price, sentiment returns to that of extreme bearishness and investors feel disinterested in treasuries, vulnerabilities will be exposed.

The key to building a truly profitable operating business is maintaining consistent revenue and growth, while strategically adding a Bitcoin treasury. When a company remains both profitable and expanding, a market valuation below an mNAV of 1 can only be attributed to irrational sentiment — effectively mispricing the business as “dead.” By combining a robust core business and stable or growing operational revenues with a growing Bitcoin reserve, companies can position themselves for resilient long-term value regardless of market volatility. This will be the next step of the treasury model, and how the key players will emerge from bearish periods.

Potential risks

mNAV compression has accelerated dramatically. Artemis Analytics reported three consecutive months of sharp mNAV declines through September 2025, with 25-33% of treasury companies now trading below 1.0x NAV — underwater territory where the flywheel reverses. Strategy’s own mNAV compressed from 6.0x peaks in 2021 to approximately 1.21x currently. Again, this reiterates the emphasis on the importance of an operating business to provide a stability to the treasury strategy, otherwise pure play small treasuries can easily find themselves deep underwater. Though it does have an operating business(marginal compared to wider operations), Strategy is an exception as it is so far ahead of any other entity in acquisition size.

Death spiral mechanics become lethal sub-1.0x. Companies trading below NAV face dilutive capital raises that destroy BPS, triggering shareholder exodus, further mNAV decline, and forced liquidations. Last Month, Strive acquired Semler Scientific in a $1.34 billion all-stock deal at a 210% premium, combining their Bitcoin treasuries into a portfolio of 10,900 BTC. This marks the first major M&A consolidation in the sector and validates the thesis that struggling pure-play treasuries will be acquired for their discounted Bitcoin holdings. Expect more consolidation as sub-1.0x mNAV companies become acquisition targets.

A Bitcoin treasury is not optional

The future of Bitcoin treasuries is just beginning. As more CFOs embrace Bitcoin as the backbone of corporate reserves, capital markets will reward disciplined, BTC-native stewardship with compounding shareholder value. As adoption accelerates, the alignment between corporate finance and the Bitcoin network will drive unprecedented change. The winners won’t just hold Bitcoin — they’ll build profitable businesses around it, creating sustainable shareholder value and business growth in an increasingly unsustainable system. A bitcoin treasury is not optional — it’s not a nice to have, it’s a must have.