Bitcoin’s latest oversold RSI mirrors 2020 and February 2026 setups that preceded 50% and 30% rebounds, putting $70K back in focus.
Bitcoin slid to $63,030 after US-Israel strikes on Iran triggered a risk-off cascade across markets. From there, BTC rallied to $74,000 intraday on Mar. 4, a roughly 17% rebound.
As of press time, Bitcoin trades at $73,613, up 7.7% in the past 24 hours. The move recaptured much of the selloff, but whether it holds depends on a handful of levels and liquidity signals that on-chain data identifies as critical.
To hold the rally, BTC needs to turn the $70,000 weekly-close ceiling into support. Otherwise, $70,000 remains an overhead distribution band, with the $60,000-$69,000 demand zone still the real bid below.
Glassnode frames $70,000 as the near-term resistance line that BTC has repeatedly failed to close above on a weekly basis since early February.
The 1-week to 1-month holder cost basis sits near $70,000, creating what Glassnode calls an overhead distribution zone, a ±2% band from $68,500 to $71,500, where recent buyers may become sellers as they reach breakeven or slight profit.
Above that, $75,000 emerges as the key gamma magnet in options positioning. Negative gamma of roughly $2.3 billion is concentrated at the $75,000 strike across expiries, with $1.8 billion in the Mar. 27 expiry alone.
The net call premium of $14.5 million has traded at $75,000 across the next three monthly expiries, with two-thirds of that volume accumulated over the past week.
This isn’t just a round number: options positioning makes $75,000 a liquidity and gravity level. If the price gets pulled there, it needs real spot demand behind it, or it becomes a chop zone.
Below current levels, support structures are thinner. The intraday low around $67,500 serves as the “bounce failed” line. If BTC breaks below it, the move risks unwinding.
Glassnode identified last week that the $60,000-$69,000 is the main demand zone underneath, suggesting that’s where real bids sit if the rally fades.
Using the $63,030 to $74,000 range, retaining 70% of the bounce means holding above $70,709. Retaining 60% means holding $69,612. Those thresholds line up almost perfectly with Glassnode’s $68,500–$71,500 overhead distribution band.
If BTC holds above $70,700, it’s likely to retain most of the bounce. If it loses $69,600, the market is giving back a meaningful chunk, and $70,000 reverts to acting like supply rather than support.
Demand is thinned
On-chain metrics show buy-side demand remains weak despite the price recovery.
The 30-day simple moving average of realized profit fell from over $1 billion per day to roughly $370 million per day, a 63% contraction.
Glassnode reads this as thinned buy-side liquidity. A “hold-the-gains” setup requires realized profit to stop contracting and re-expand, indicating buyers are willing to transact at a premium. Without that, the bounce goes to weak hands.
The percent of supply in profit sits around 57%, below its minus-one standard deviation threshold near 60%. Glassnode compares this stressed regime to the early stages of the May 2022 and November 2018 bear phases.
For the rally to hold, the percentage of supply in profit needs to reclaim 60% and trend higher, signaling an exit from the stressed regime.
Coinbase leads spot liquidity, ETF flows stabilize
Spot flow data reveals a nuanced picture.
Selling pressure has been moderating over the last few days. The Coinbase spot cumulative volume delta has started to rebound, indicating early bid-side activity.
However, Binance and aggregate exchange flows remain weak, though Glassnode notes they’re “no longer accelerating lower.”
This bounce holds only if bid absorption broadens beyond Coinbase. Otherwise, it’s a localized relief rally, not a market-wide spot reversal. The pattern suggests institutional or US-based buyers are re-engaging, but international or retail flows haven’t followed yet.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had sustained outflows leading into the selloff, but flows have stabilized with early inflows reappearing. Mar. 2 saw $458.2 million in net inflows, followed by $225.2 million on Mar. 3, according to Farside Investors data.
Glassnode stresses it’s too early to confirm a durable reversal, but continued recovery in inflows would provide meaningful spot-side support.
Supportive conditions include multiple days of net inflows and the 7-day average shifting up from negative. Reversal risk remains if flows slip back negative while price is stuck below or around the $70,000 overhead band.
The stabilization is encouraging, but persistence matters more than the initial turnaround.
Derivatives: leverage flushed, $75,000 as a magnet
Perpetual directional premium continues compressing toward cycle lows, indicating cautious leverage and muted bullish conviction.
Glassnode frames this as leverage being flushed, but also as a signal that leveraged bulls remain hesitant.
A healthy hold would see premiums stabilize, while spot conditions improve.
A fragile hold would show price rising mainly on derivatives, while spot remains weak. So far, the setup leans toward the former, with leverage unwinding rather than re-accumulating aggressively.
Options positioning has shifted dramatically since the Feb. 28 lows. The put/call ratio moved from 1.89 to 0.4, reflecting hedges unwinding and increased call activity. Skew compressed from the mid-20s to the low-10s, indicating downside fear has faded.
The $75,000 strike concentration is the key detail. Roughly $2.3 billion in negative gamma sits at that strike across expiries, with $1.8 billion concentrated in the Mar. 27 expiry.
The net call premium of $14.5 million has been traded at $75,000 across the next three monthly expiries, with two-thirds of the premium accumulated over the past week.
If the price approaches $75,000, the gamma concentration creates a liquidity and gravity effect. Without real spot demand backing it, that level could become a chop zone rather than a breakout point.
What holds, what breaks
Three scenarios frame the possibilities.
The first scenario occurs if BTC holds above $70,700 and starts to post stronger spot and ETF support. In this case, the $70,000 level can flip to support, and $75,000 becomes the next magnet test. Weekly closes above $70,000 would confirm the flip.
For the second scenario to play out, BTC churns between $68,500 and $71,500 and can’t get weekly closes above $70,000, the move risks being a relief rally into overhead distribution. Realized profit needs to re-expand, and spot bid absorption needs to broaden beyond Coinbase for this range to resolve higher.
Lastly, a third scenario arises if BTC loses the local bounce structure around $67,500 and $70,000 stays overhead. The market is likely to revisit the $60,000-$69,000 demand zone as the real bid. That would mark a failed bounce rather than a hold.
The data points to a fragile recovery with pockets of strength, such as Coinbase flows improving, ETF inflows stabilizing, and options skew normalizing.
However, the broader tape remains unconvinced.
The $70,000 level isn’t just a number, it is also where recent buyers sit on cost basis, where weekly closes have failed repeatedly, and where the market will test whether this bounce has follow-through or fades into overhead supply.
Weekly closes and spot flow breadth will answer that question over the next several days.
- Hedera and Stellar prices are up by 15% and 10% respectively as altcoin surge.
- HBAR and XLM eye key levels, helped by Bitcoin’s swift rebound to $70,000.
- Analysts warn that prices may yet dip after the latest relief rally.
HBAR and XLM are up double digits as cryptocurrencies look for a swift rebound following Thursday’s steep crash that saw over $2.6 billion in leveraged positions wiped out.
The altcoins are up as Bitcoin, which crashed to $60,000 amid the bloodbath, leads the recovery with a rebound to above $70,000.
Gains for Hedera and Stellar mirror the sharp upticks for XRP, Flare, VeChain, and Kaspa. Ethereum, which dipped to near $1,700 on Thursday, was testing the resistance at $2,000.
HBAR and XLM price gains
Hedera’s token dropped to lows of $0.073 as top coins crashed late Thursday, but currently hovers above $0.093 as buyers eye the $0.10 mark given up this week.
An uptick of over 15% in the past 24 hours amid a 65% surge in trading volume (to over $420 million) signals the strong buying that follows the latest dip.
Bulls will eye year-to-date highs of $0.13, likely if market sentiment improves further.
Stellar, which has tracked gains by XRP in the past, also jumped on Friday.
The altcoin was up 10% at the time of writing, slightly off the mark seen with a 13% uptick during early US trading hours.
XRP’s 18% spike as prices touched $1.52 following a dump to $1.13 pulled the closely related XLM higher.
CoinMarketCap data showed Stellar traded around $0.17, sharply up from the lows of $0.13 reached earlier in the day.
XLM was inching higher on increased volume, which details indicate stood at a 24-hour high of $426 million. Stellar bulls had helped push the daily volume up by more than 56% over this period.
While sentiment remains well within the extreme fear territory, analysts say a break to $0.20 could allow for fresh bullish momentum.
Bitcoin tops $70,000 as cryptocurrencies rebound
Bitcoin (BTC) is spearheading the crypto sector’s latest quest for a swift turnaround following a sharp crash.
The huge leverage unwinding saw BTC fall to $60,000, with a $10,000 drop in 24 hours marking the biggest one-day rout since bears annihilated bulls during the FTX crash in 2022.
Gains have come as open interest expands, with shorts covering positions and fueling the climb to the critical $70,000 support level. Daily RSI also shows a bullish divergence.
CoinShares says record ETP volumes, pause in whale selling, and BTC price moving below miners’ production costs are factors that have historically marked fresh accumulation “rather than the start of a new leg lower.”
However, crypto analyst Rekt Capital says bulls may yet have to take on bears.
The analyst shared his BTC price forecast as the cryptocurrency market bounced from Thursday’s crash.
According to Rekt Capital, a potential bearish acceleration is likely after another relief rally, with this based on Bitcoin’s historical chart patterns.
“History suggests there’s more downside to come,” he shared on X.
Bitcoin traded around $71,190 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin investors, it’s time to buckle up.
Jon Glover, Elliott Wave analyst and Ledn’s Chief Investment Officer, known for his precise market forecasts, is going against the bullish consensus with a stark warning: The bitcoin bull market that began in early 2023 appears to be over following a recent fall from $126,000 to $104,000.
Glover now foresees a sustained bear market that could push prices down to $70,000 or lower, a potential drop of more than 35% from the going market rate of around $108,000.
“I firmly believe we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now entering a bear market that may last until at least late 2026,” Glover said. “I expect bitcoin to trade between $70K and $80K, and possibly even lower.”
Glover explained that while the possibility of bitcoin retesting its record highs around $124,000 or climbing slightly higher cannot be ruled out, the broader trend has now flipped bearish, meaning prices are likely to be lower a few months from now.
The Elliott Wave theory
Introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, Elliott Wave Theory is based on the idea that collective investor psychology moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form a five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend, with three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin’s bullish five-wave pattern started in late 2022, when prices were below $20,000, culminating with the fifth wave peaking at a record above $126,000 earlier this month.
Initially, wave 5 was predicted to bring prices to between $140,000 and $150,000 by year-end. Glover made this call in early August against a backdrop of growing bearish concerns after a sharp dip from $120,000 to $112,000.
While prices surged as forecasted, momentum stalled beyond $125,000 this month, prompting Glover to warn that a repeated failure to hold above that level would weaken the bull case. Subsequently, bitcoin tumbled to $105,000 last week, confirming an early end to the bull run.
“Now that we have broken down below $108k, I am ready to make the call as to whether we are on the orange path in the chart below and therefore looking for a move up to $145k, or are on the yellow path, which would mean that we have seen the highs in this market,” Glover said. “Here’s my call: THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!”
The bearish outlook is consistent with bitcoin’s historical trend of peaking and then entering a bear market roughly 18 months after each halving event. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
Supporting Glover’s bearish sentiment, data from Amberdata shows BTC’s Deribit-listed put options, providing downside protection, are trading at a premium compared to calls through the September 2026 expiry. This suggests that some traders are preparing for downside risks extending well into next year.
